Okay first if you don’t believe technical analysis works please just move along… For the rest of you: I swing trade. My Chart reading over the last few days laed me to conclude that today was a decision day that would trigger a “go long” signal for the broad market or give me a “keep waiting for direction”. Then this morning the CPI data was released. I don’t pay as much attention to that kind of thing as I should. But it was interesting that my charts lead me to a decision making point yesterday. Assuming my charts are accurate, that means the market was at a decision making point as of close of business yesterday pending the outcome of the new CPI Data. So it makes me wonder if key points in swing trade decision making are just the market preparing for a Market Moving news events. Building on this idea, does that mean that the market will have a tendency to move toward a decision making point on my chart the day before a big news event? Thoughts?
That would assume smart money or institutional already know the new news, which is on CPI certainly not the case or not possible. So the conclusion is you cannot see it on chart because of the outcome of future news. It may depend on other things on the chart, so it was luckily the same here. I also was long US Dollar (short EURUSD and short GBPUSD), but I know it has nothing to do with the (future) news, when I entered the swing FX position yesterday.
Didn't have time earlier to say more than yes but big money (I never refer to as smart money) gets positioned ahead of news. Which is obviously why there is often a big countertrend move when news wasn't to their liking. No knowing the news beforehand. That's tinfoilhat stuff, better saved for politics topics than trading.
Market can/does "front run" expectations sometimes/often.... sometimes there is big disappointment... like today. If a trader wants to have a "play" on in anticipation of such news, best to already have a big profit cushion. How big is "big enough"? No way to tell. ES dropped about 100 points in 20-ish seconds today. Conservative play would be to be flat prior.
%% Partly\ except as bear rallies go, they can + have a swing much more than this one. And not related to the CPI @ all. And SPY, QQQ any stock index could have just as easily done a bear rally to mid month , very, very common also. Congrats on you swing trade profits\ good short\inverse tradable move move open to 9 {CST} to now 1;19. I seldom enter around 8;30 CST even if i am fairly sure its a trade able move ,as it was. Back to 200dma still down + going down. NOT a prediction
I agree. Without divulging my secret formula, there were actually two decision making points. We blew past the first one as I think people were taking a chance on receiving good news (or not so bad news), and they drove it up to what I would call the point of no return. But, they did not drive past the point of no return because any bad news would really crush them. I am conservative so I was using the point of no return as my decision making point for jumping onto the trend, and of course it never materialized. At this point I think we’ve ratcheted it down to an extent that it may make sense to go short over the next few days. Depends on where we are at the bell though…
An an economic events calendar, an accurate clock, a good breakfast a cuppa joe and 10 minutes in the morning sunshine, some stats, a few tried and true simple price action setups, a clear mind, a 1minute and a 30second chart and a little bit of Giddy UP! can make for a damn fine morning. Rinse repeat. Yep. Right here... https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/charts-for-no-reason.344272/page-25#post-5609680