Yes tomorrow is CPI and the prediction is for a solid 8.4% which would the highest in over 40 years. Of course only a handful of people saw this coming, meanwhile anyone could have predicted this a few short years ago thanks to the fed and their printing craziness and historical low rates. Thank you fed for creating rapid inflation and asset bubbles!! Anyway my prediction is for double digits on the inflation report tomorrow. If this happens expect a sweet continued sell off. However if by some luck the inflation report shows under 7% then expect a snap back 2%+++ rally across all indexes. Economists expect inflation rose 1.1% in March from the prior month, but the year-over-year gain is expected to be 8.4%, the highest since December 1981. The consumer price index will be reported Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Thx, good points ... as usual I'll buy UVXY SQQQ if drop, or SOXL if pop. Currently holding 750 shares UVXY overnight
Haven't backtested it but high inflation sounds to me as a selloff in bonds, rally in equities. Opionions?
High inflation together with higher interest rate --> selloff bonds, selloff equities (future profits are worth less now). High growth and/or with large debts stocks suffer the most in theory
disclaimer : I will react to the market. I will focus on the index futures, bonds, gold The inflation number is totally irrelevant. It doesn't matter whether it is double or triple digits. Just focus on the chart and react to it.
lol.. disclaimer: me too.. if the market goes up I go long, if it goes down i short/trade inverses reminder 3-wave whipsaw from 8:30-8:45 or so.. kneejerk reaction, countertrend, Then major move
This stockmarket has continued to show strength despite, all the headwinds aligned against it. The oil prices probably, manipulated because I have not seen oil production boosted anywhere. Sure, Joe Biden released 1,000,000 barrels of oil a day from the strategic petroleum reserve versus US oil consumption of 20,500,000 barrels of oil a day? Commodity prices going thru the roof. I doubt Americans will stop driving their cars, going on trips, etc. At the same time, oil is highly inflationary. Much is made of the Chinese lockdown when there are like 2 billion Chinese in all? How many millions live in Shanghai and are locked down? Are the Chinese going to stop using oil? I still rely on the stockcharts exclusively, to make my trading decisions. A lot of stocks are in wedges or ascending triangle patterns. We probably, will find out soon enough where those stocks are headed.