http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ He actually called for 313, with FL it'll be higher. But look at the map on the right, I can't find a mistake on which ones he called blue.
The Gallup most likely voter poll showed Romney well ahead at one point. I had always been told that this was the most reliable poll. Don't think I will be paying much attention to it anymore.
That's simply incredible. I got that piece of info thru a text message that Silver had gone 50/50. Wow.
And, InTrade map showing how well they did, State by State, pretty nice. http://electoralmap.net/2012/2012final.php
CU Ken Bicker model was wrong Yale electoral model was wrong too Morris and Rove were wrong Gallup was wrong CNN/CBS/WSJ/FOX independents polls were wrong Nate Silver was dead right!
A lot of people stated some pretty disparaging stuff about Mr Silver. I think some apologies are in order. The guy predicted an EC blowout and even he was conservative.
It was Silver's quant on Romney (high 20s on the digital) that had me enter buy limits at betfair and intrade to cover my "pick'em" wagers at 29. I owe the guy.