Does the S & P always go up, over the long term ?

Of course the S&P only goes straight up for the past 100 years. If you are fine making 6% a year on average.
But people want to make way more than that with understanding and timing -- I certainly do.

Anyone who says the S&P only goes up, though, has a vested interests in saying that. They are either financial planners, writers, educators, or social media personalities. Sure, it sounds solid, but it's not very practical or efficient. Similar to saying go to school, be a doctor, and you will live happily ever after in your life.

 

Most of the people you mention (unless they're most sophisticated) don't talk about sequence of returns risk or long periods of no growth. The S&P basically went nowhere from 1968 to 1982 and from 2000-2012. If you were depending on a final 10-15 years of strong growth in those periods for your retirement accounts, it didn't work out well

 

Well, I think we go down to 2000 which is a 50% fib retracement from the current price of 4000. Then if you have not shorted it, it will eventually go back to 4000. So right now go to cash or short hard, then go long at 2000. Feel free to give me credit when this occurs.

 

And blame you when it doesn't?

 

and if they pick wrong, they will replace with stronger stocks and presto - fixed.

 

Nope. It's not magical like that. If it were that easy, momentum investing would have some incredible edge.

 

Momemtum investing does have an incredible edge.

 

Mild, not incredible.
Understanding Momentum Investing - (alphaarchitect.com)

It all depends on the market cycle, which you can't predict. Sometimes stocks mean revert. Then it's costly to get rid of "dogs" about to recover and replace them with "strong stocks" that are about to underperform. It is good to get rid of stocks that continually drop and may eventually go bankrupt. But that's a quite small part of the index.

 

%%
SURE @ first glance/;
another problem most charts dont show the dividends.
[2]Another problem\really should look @ all the data, not just 10 or 100 years
[3] Another problem= market is full of people that do more than just do a first glance\ even just a 100 chart 1987 or 2000-2002 dont look uptrendy @ all.Even worse if someone had real money[Fed reserve notes] in the market.......................................................
But works eVen better if one started his or her 40 year cycle @ 2002\LOL

 

You mean you can't predict it.