On the Nasdaq Futures we are currently seeing a double top on the weekly building up. The candle of the current week is clearly bullish but lets say for a scenario it wasn't clearly bullish and closed only marginal above the open (while still building a double top, with a higher open price). Which of the two would be more advantageous for bears - double top or the absence of another clear bullish bar? I am having difficulties backtesting this but still wondering
This is a technical question. A double top AND a bearish bar is the unicorn you are looking for. Without it just sit on your hands and let the next week play out.
The most advantageous for bears would be to become a bull, and ride the train. Not sit in the middle of the tracks.
I presume your focus is on swing trading. So do not think there will be a signal to short every few days/weeks/months. simply use a straight ruler and draw a rising trend line. start the trend line from May 2021. don't bother about double top or double candle, marginal above or marginal below, slightly bullish, slightly bearish stuff. Those are trivial things. You don't want to suffer from analysis paralysis. Now, look at the bigger picture. France CAC40, India Nifty, Sweden OMX, Italy MIB, Amsterdam AEX ... have been breaking record highs. China indices & Hangseng have been going down due to the recent China actions on Didi, IPO on US exchange ... and not because of poor economy / GDP.