We have a new report and video highlighting companies reporting earnings. The report reviews historical earnings information and finds a potential options trade. We appreciate feedback.
KB Home (KBH) Earnings Report Welcome to the ORATS earnings report where we scan for companies with upcoming earnings announcements, check out historical earnings information, and find a potential options trade. Let's start by running a scan on earnings reporting this week, which includes the total option volume indicator, sorted from greatest to least. Focusing on KB Home, as we click through, we see this mid-cap company in the residential construction industry reports earnings on Wednesday, June 22, after the close. The earnings and financials tab takes us to more detail showing the options market expecting a move of 7.9% in either direction. This move was breached in 2 out of the last 12 earnings. During that time, the post-earnings move was outside of the implied range 5 times. In those cases, long straddles were profitable. The rest of the earnings moves likely yielded profitable short straddles. We can overlay quarterly financial data by clicking on the ratios below the earn move graph. Let's look at the PE ratio, which is the stock price divided by the trailing twelve months earnings per share. For KBH, the current PE ratio is 3.9, which is 48.7% under the average for the last twelve earnings observations. Returning to the overview tab, we can quickly run a scan to find the best option trades. Since earnings are right around the corner, we scan for neutral strategies, then filter the scan results by S%, or smoothed edge, by setting it between negative and positive 3%. This helps narrow the results to trades that are fairly priced. The highest ranked trade is a Iron Condor with strikes at 18, 23, 28, and 33, expiring on 2022-07-15, for a credit of $1.5. By pulling up the trade, we can see the theoretical values in more detail. The distribution edge, found by the expected value of the payoff picture on the stock's historical distribution, has an edge of 10.7%. The forecast edge, which is derived from historical volatility, has an edge of 5.3%. Lastly, the smoothed edge, which is calculated by drawing a best fit curve through the monthly implied volatilities, has an edge of 1.3%. The edge is relative to the mid-market price of the trade. Greater positive edges are a theoretical benefit to the trader. We can also look at the payoff graph. The probability of profit sums the probability of the nodes for the part of the payoff picture above the zero profit line over three standard deviations. For this trade the probability of profit is 68.61%. The reward to risk divides the max gain by the max loss. Here the 1 to 2.3 is the ratio of the max gain of $150 to the max loss of $-350. There are two break evens for this Iron Condor at 21.5 and 29.5. The total greeks and ThinkOrSwim code complete the information on the trade analysis popout. Next, let's look at this trade in the trade builder. Over the last month, the stock price fell 20.7%, while the thirty-day implied volatility rose 30.5%. The average slope of the trendlines is negative. The heatmap on the right side of the graph is green where volatility and slope are undervalued, and red where they are overvalued. In this case, short term IV and slope are overvalued, while the long term is slightly overvalued. We can also see this trade overlaid on the monthly implied volatility graph in the chain tab. The legs for this trade are circled. For any questions or issues with the article, please contact otto@orats.com. To subscribe to the dashboard, please visit https://orats.com/dashboard.
Nike (NKE) Earnings Report Welcome to the ORATS earnings report where we scan for companies with upcoming earnings announcements, check out historical earnings information, and find a potential options trade. Read on or watch the video overview here: . Let's start by running a scan on stocks reporting earnings this week, which includes the total option volume indicator, sorted from greatest to least. Focusing on Nike, as we click through, we see this large-cap company in the footwear and accessories industry reports earnings on Monday, June 27th, after the close. The earnings and financials tab takes us to more detail showing the options market expecting a move of 7.0% in either direction. This move was breached in 4 out of the last 12 earnings. During that time, the post-earnings move was outside of the implied range 5 times. In those cases, long straddles were profitable. The rest of the earnings moves likely yielded profitable short straddles. We can overlay quarterly financial data by clicking on the ratios below the earn move graph. Let's look at the PE ratio, which is the stock price divided by the trailing twelve months earnings per share. For NKE, the current PE ratio is 29.3, which is 25.8% under the average for the last twelve earnings observations. Returning to the overview tab, we can quickly run a scan to find the best option trades. Since earnings are right around the corner, we scan for neutral strategies, then filter the scan results by S%, or smoothed edge, by setting it between negative and positive 3%. This helps narrow the results to trades that are fairly priced. The highest ranked trade is a Long Put Calendar with strikes at 115, expiring on Friday, August 19th and Friday, August 5th, for a debit of $0.68. By pulling up the trade, we can see the theoretical values in more detail. The distribution edge, found by the expected value of the payoff picture on the stock's historical distribution, has an edge of 45.3%. The forecast edge, which is derived from historical volatility, has an edge of 17.3%. Lastly, the smoothed edge, which is calculated by drawing a best fit curve through the monthly implied volatilities, has an edge of 2.7%. The edge is relative to the mid-market price of the trade. Greater positive edges are a theoretical benefit to the trader. We can also look at the payoff graph. The probability of profit sums the probability of the nodes for the part of the payoff picture above the zero profit line over three standard deviations. For this trade the probability of profit is 52.68%. The reward to risk divides the max gain by the max loss. Here the 5.1 to 1 is the ratio of the max gain of $318 to the max loss of $-63. There are two break evens for this Long Put Calendar at 107.06 and 124.07. The total greeks and ThinkOrSwim code complete the information on the trade analysis popout. Next, let's look at this trade in the trade builder. Over the last month, the stock price fell 6.3%, while the thirty-day implied volatility rose 13.8%. The average slope of the trendlines is negative. The heatmap on the right side of the graph is green where volatility and slope are undervalued, and red where they are overvalued. In this case, short term IV and slope are neutral, while the long term is slightly overvalued. We can also see this trade overlaid on the monthly implied volatility graph in the chain tab. The legs for this trade are circled. For any questions or issues with the article, please contact otto@orats.com. To subscribe to the dashboard, please visit https://orats.com/dashboard
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) Earnings Report Welcome to the ORATS earnings report where we scan for companies with upcoming earnings announcements, check out historical earnings information, and find a potential options trade. Read on or watch the video overview here: . Let's start by running a scan on stocks reporting earnings this week, which includes the total option volume indicator, sorted from greatest to least. Focusing on Walgreens Boots Alliance, as we click through, we see this large-cap company in the pharmaceutical retailers industry reports earnings on Thursday, June 30th, before the open. The earnings and financials tab takes us to more detail showing the options market expecting a move of 5.0% in either direction. This move was breached in 6 out of the last 12 earnings. During that time, the post-earnings move was outside of the implied range 5 times. In those cases, long straddles were profitable. The rest of the earnings moves likely yielded profitable short straddles. We can overlay quarterly financial data by clicking on the ratios below the earn move graph. Let's look at the PE ratio, which is the stock price divided by the trailing twelve months earnings per share. For WBA, the current PE ratio is 7.0, which is 1.3% over the average for the last twelve earnings observations. Returning to the overview tab, we can quickly run a scan to find the best option trades. Since earnings are right around the corner, we scan for neutral strategies, then filter the scan results by S%, or smoothed edge, by setting it between negative and positive 3%. This helps narrow the results to trades that are fairly priced. The highest ranked trade is a Iron Butterfly with strikes at 36, 41, and 47, expiring on 2022-07-22, for a credit of $2.74. By pulling up the trade, we can see the theoretical values in more detail. The distribution edge, found by the expected value of the payoff picture on the stock's historical distribution, has an edge of 19.7%. The forecast edge, which is derived from historical volatility, has an edge of 4.7%. Lastly, the smoothed edge, which is calculated by drawing a best fit curve through the monthly implied volatilities, has an edge of 1.1%. The edge is relative to the mid-market price of the trade. Greater positive edges are a theoretical benefit to the trader. We can also look at the payoff graph. The probability of profit sums the probability of the nodes for the part of the payoff picture above the zero profit line over three standard deviations. For this trade the probability of profit is 66.10%. The reward to risk divides the max gain by the max loss. Here the 1 to 1.2 is the ratio of the max gain of $274 to the max loss of $-326. There are two break evens for this Iron Butterfly at 38.26 and 43.74. The total greeks and ThinkOrSwim code complete the information on the trade analysis popout. Next, let's look at this trade in the trade builder. Over the last month, the stock price fell 6.6%, while the thirty-day implied volatility rose 31.0%. The average slope of the trendlines is negative. The heatmap on the right side of the graph is green where volatility and slope are undervalued, and red where they are overvalued. In this case, short term IV and slope are slightly overvalued, while the long term is slightly overvalued. We can also see this trade overlaid on the monthly implied volatility graph in the chain tab. The legs for this trade are circled. For any questions or issues with the article, please contact otto@orats.com. To subscribe to the dashboard, please visit https://orats.com/dashboard
Micron Technology (MU) Earnings Report Welcome to the ORATS earnings report where we scan for companies with upcoming earnings announcements, check out historical earnings information, and find a potential options trade. Read on or watch the video overview here: . Let's start by running a scan on stocks reporting earnings this week, which includes the total option volume indicator, sorted from greatest to least. Focusing on Micron Technology, as we click through, we see this large-cap company in the semiconductors industry reports earnings on Thursday, June 30th, after the close. The earnings and financials tab takes us to more detail showing the options market expecting a move of 7.3% in either direction. This move was breached in 4 out of the last 12 earnings. During that time, the post-earnings move was outside of the implied range 6 times. In those cases, long straddles were profitable. The rest of the earnings moves likely yielded profitable short straddles. We can overlay quarterly financial data by clicking on the ratios below the earn move graph. Let's look at the PE ratio, which is the stock price divided by the trailing twelve months earnings per share. For MU, the current PE ratio is 6.4, which is 50.5% under the average for the last twelve earnings observations. Returning to the overview tab, we can quickly run a scan to find the best option trades. Since earnings are right around the corner, we scan for neutral strategies, then filter the scan results by S%, or smoothed edge, by setting it between negative and positive 3%. This helps narrow the results to trades that are fairly priced. The highest ranked trade is a Iron Condor with strikes at 44, 50, 61, and 67, expiring on 2022-07-29, for a credit of $2.08. By pulling up the trade, we can see the theoretical values in more detail. The distribution edge, found by the expected value of the payoff picture on the stock's historical distribution, has an edge of 25.2%. The forecast edge, which is derived from historical volatility, has an edge of 20.9%. Lastly, the smoothed edge, which is calculated by drawing a best fit curve through the monthly implied volatilities, has an edge of 1.0%. The edge is relative to the mid-market price of the trade. Greater positive edges are a theoretical benefit to the trader. We can also look at the payoff graph. The probability of profit sums the probability of the nodes for the part of the payoff picture above the zero profit line over three standard deviations. For this trade the probability of profit is 72.98%. The reward to risk divides the max gain by the max loss. Here the 1 to 1.9 is the ratio of the max gain of $206 to the max loss of $-394. There are two break evens for this Iron Condor at 47.94 and 63.06. The total greeks and ThinkOrSwim code complete the information on the trade analysis popout. Next, let's look at this trade in the trade builder. Over the last month, the stock price fell 25.8%, while the thirty-day implied volatility rose 22.9%. The average slope of the trendlines is negative. The heatmap on the right side of the graph is green where volatility and slope are undervalued, and red where they are overvalued. In this case, short term IV and slope are neutral, while the long term is overvalued. We can also see this trade overlaid on the monthly implied volatility graph in the chain tab. The legs for this trade are circled. For any questions or issues with the article, please contact otto@orats.com. To subscribe to the dashboard, please visit https://orats.com/dashboard
PepsiCo (PEP) Earnings Report Welcome to the ORATS earnings report where we scan for companies with upcoming earnings announcements, check out historical earnings information, and find a potential options trade. Read on or watch the video overview here: . Let's start by running a scan on stocks reporting earnings this week, which includes the total option volume indicator, sorted from greatest to least. Focusing on PepsiCo, as we click through, we see this large-cap company in the beverages-non-alcoholic industry reports earnings on Monday, July 11th, after the close. The earnings and financials tab takes us to more detail showing the options market expecting a move of 2.6% in either direction. This move was breached in 0 out of the last 12 earnings. During that time, the post-earnings move was outside of the implied range 1 times. In those cases, long straddles were profitable. The rest of the earnings moves likely yielded profitable short straddles. We can overlay quarterly financial data by clicking on the ratios below the earn move graph. Let's look at the PE ratio, which is the stock price divided by the trailing twelve months earnings per share. For PEP, the current PE ratio is 27.0, which is 26.9% over the average for the last twelve earnings observations. Returning to the overview tab, we can quickly run a scan to find the best option trades. Since earnings are right around the corner, we scan for neutral strategies, then filter the scan results by S%, or smoothed edge, by setting it between negative and positive 3%. This helps narrow the results to trades that are fairly priced. The highest ranked trade is a Long Put Calendar with strikes at 170, expiring on Friday, October 21st and Friday, August 5th, for a debit of $3.85. By pulling up the trade, we can see the theoretical values in more detail. The distribution edge, found by the expected value of the payoff picture on the stock's historical distribution, has an edge of 16.1%. The forecast edge, which is derived from historical volatility, has an edge of 12.0%. Lastly, the smoothed edge, which is calculated by drawing a best fit curve through the monthly implied volatilities, has an edge of 2.3%. The edge is relative to the mid-market price of the trade. Greater positive edges are a theoretical benefit to the trader. We can also look at the payoff graph. The probability of profit sums the probability of the nodes for the part of the payoff picture above the zero profit line over three standard deviations. For this trade the probability of profit is 53.69%. The reward to risk divides the max gain by the max loss. Here the 1 to 1.3 is the ratio of the max gain of $300 to the max loss of $-381. There are two break evens for this Long Put Calendar at 163.25 and 177.9. The total greeks and ThinkOrSwim code complete the information on the trade analysis popout. Next, let's look at this trade in the trade builder. Over the last month, the stock price rose 7.1%, while the thirty-day implied volatility fell 12.9%. The average slope of the trendlines is positive. The heatmap on the right side of the graph is green where volatility and slope are undervalued, and red where they are overvalued. In this case, short term IV and slope are neutral, while the long term is neutral. We can also see this trade overlaid on the monthly implied volatility graph in the chain tab. The legs for this trade are circled. For any questions or issues with the article, please contact otto@orats.com. To subscribe to the dashboard, please visit https://orats.com/dashboard
Morgan Stanley (MS) Earnings Report Welcome to the ORATS earnings report where we scan for companies with upcoming earnings announcements, check out historical earnings information, and find a potential options trade. Read on or watch the video overview here: . Let's start by running a scan on stocks reporting earnings this week, which includes the total option volume indicator, sorted from greatest to least. Focusing on Morgan Stanley, as we click through, we see this large-cap company in the capital markets industry reports earnings on Thursday, July 14th, before the open. The earnings and financials tab takes us to more detail showing the options market expecting a move of 4.2% in either direction. This move was breached in 1 out of the last 12 earnings. During that time, the post-earnings move was outside of the implied range 1 times. In those cases, long straddles were profitable. The rest of the earnings moves likely yielded profitable short straddles. We can overlay quarterly financial data by clicking on the ratios below the earn move graph. Let's look at the PE ratio, which is the stock price divided by the trailing twelve months earnings per share. For MS, the current PE ratio is 9.4, which is 16.0% over the average for the last twelve earnings observations. Returning to the overview tab, we can quickly run a scan to find the best option trades. Since earnings are right around the corner, we scan for neutral strategies, then filter the scan results by S%, or smoothed edge, by setting it between negative and positive 3%. This helps narrow the results to trades that are fairly priced. The highest ranked trade is a Long Put Calendar with strikes at 75, expiring on Friday, October 21st and Friday, August 12th, for a debit of $2.13. By pulling up the trade, we can see the theoretical values in more detail. The distribution edge, found by the expected value of the payoff picture on the stock's historical distribution, has an edge of 31.9%. The forecast edge, which is derived from historical volatility, has an edge of 7.5%. Lastly, the smoothed edge, which is calculated by drawing a best fit curve through the monthly implied volatilities, has an edge of 0.0%. The edge is relative to the mid-market price of the trade. Greater positive edges are a theoretical benefit to the trader. We can also look at the payoff graph. The probability of profit sums the probability of the nodes for the part of the payoff picture above the zero profit line over three standard deviations. For this trade the probability of profit is 69.21%. The reward to risk divides the max gain by the max loss. Here the 1.2 to 1 is the ratio of the max gain of $260 to the max loss of $-213. There are two break evens for this Long Put Calendar at 68.77 and 82.8. The total greeks and ThinkOrSwim code complete the information on the trade analysis popout. Next, let's look at this trade in the trade builder. Over the last month, the stock price rose 0.2%, while the thirty-day implied volatility fell 3.7%. The average slope of the trendlines is negative. The heatmap on the right side of the graph is green where volatility and slope are undervalued, and red where they are overvalued. In this case, short term IV and slope are undervalued, while the long term is overvalued. We can also see this trade overlaid on the monthly implied volatility graph in the chain tab. The legs for this trade are circled. For any questions or issues with the article, please contact otto@orats.com. To subscribe to the dashboard, please visit https://orats.com/dashboard Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented herein are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice tailored to your investment objectives. You should not rely solely on any content herein and we strongly encourage you to discuss any trades or investments with your broker or investment adviser, prior to execution. None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Option trading and investing involves risk and is not suitable for all investors.
International Business Machines (IBM) Earnings Report Monday, July 18th After Welcome to the ORATS earnings report where we scan for companies with upcoming earnings announcements, check out historical earnings information, and find a potential options trade. Read on or watch the video overview here: . Let's start by running a scan on stocks reporting earnings this week, which includes the total option volume indicator, sorted from greatest to least. Focusing on International Business Machines, as we click through, we see this large-cap company in the information technology services industry reports earnings on Monday, July 18th, after the close. The earnings and financials tab takes us to more detail showing the options market expecting a move of 5.7% in either direction. This move was breached in 4 out of the last 12 earnings. During that time, the post-earnings move was outside of the implied range 6 times. In those cases, long straddles were profitable. The rest of the earnings moves likely yielded profitable short straddles. We can overlay quarterly financial data by clicking on the ratios below the earn move graph. Let's look at the PE ratio, which is the stock price divided by the trailing twelve months earnings per share. For IBM, the current PE ratio is 14.5, which is 52.3% over the average for the last twelve earnings observations. Returning to the overview tab, we can quickly run a scan to find the best option trades. Since earnings are right around the corner, we scan for neutral strategies, then filter the scan results by S%, or smoothed edge, by setting it between negative and positive 3%. This helps narrow the results to trades that are fairly priced. The highest ranked trade is a Long Call Calendar with strikes at 141, expiring on Friday, August 26th and Friday, August 12th, for a debit of $0.25. By pulling up the trade, we can see the theoretical values in more detail. The distribution edge, found by the expected value of the payoff picture on the stock's historical distribution, has an edge of 90.7%. The forecast edge, which is derived from historical volatility, has an edge of 45.3%. Lastly, the smoothed edge, which is calculated by drawing a best fit curve through the monthly implied volatilities, has an edge of 2.7%. The edge is relative to the mid-market price of the trade. Greater positive edges are a theoretical benefit to the trader. We can also look at the payoff graph. The reward to risk divides the max gain by the max loss. Here the 12.6 to 1 is the ratio of the max gain of $316 to the max loss of $-25. There are two break evens for this Long Call Calendar at 132.4 and 151.1. The total greeks and ThinkOrSwim code complete the information on the trade analysis popout. Next, let's look at this trade in the trade builder. Over the last month, the stock price rose 1.3%, while the thirty-day implied volatility rose 17.3%. The average slope of the trendlines is negative. The heatmap on the right side of the graph is green where volatility and slope are undervalued, and red where they are overvalued. In this case, short term IV and slope are slightly overvalued, while the long term is very overvalued. We can also see this trade overlaid on the monthly implied volatility graph in the chain tab. The legs for this trade are circled. For any questions or issues with the article, please contact otto@orats.com. To subscribe to the dashboard, please visit https://orats.com/dashboard Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented herein are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice tailored to your investment objectives. You should not rely solely on any content herein and we strongly encourage you to discuss any trades or investments with your broker or investment adviser, prior to execution. None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Option trading and investing involves risk and is not suitable for all investors.
Twitter (TWTR) Earnings Report Friday, July 22nd https://blog.orats.com/twitter-twtr-earnings-report-friday-july-22nd Welcome to the ORATS earnings report where we scan for companies with upcoming earnings announcements, check out historical earnings information, and find a potential options trade. Read on or watch the video overview here: Let's start by running a scan on stocks reporting earnings this week, which includes the total option volume indicator, sorted from greatest to least. Focusing on Twitter, as we click through, we see this large-cap company in the internet content and information industry reports earnings on Friday, July 22nd, before the open. The earnings and financials tab takes us to more detail showing the options market expecting a move of 3.9% in either direction. This move was breached in 8 out of the last 12 earnings. During that time, the post-earnings move was outside of the implied range 4 times. In those cases, long straddles were profitable. The rest of the earnings moves likely yielded profitable short straddles. We can overlay quarterly financial data by clicking on the ratios below the earn move graph. Let's look at the PE ratio, which is the stock price divided by the trailing twelve months earnings per share. For TWTR, the current PE ratio is 44.3, which is 30.9% over the average for the last twelve earnings observations. Returning to the overview tab, we can quickly run a scan to find the best option trades. Since earnings are right around the corner, we scan for neutral strategies, then filter the scan results by S%, or smoothed edge, by setting it between negative and positive 3%. This helps narrow the results to trades that are fairly priced. The highest ranked trade is a Iron Butterfly with strikes at 32.5, 40, and 48, expiring on 2022-08-19, for a credit of $3.6. By pulling up the trade, we can see the theoretical values in more detail. The distribution edge, found by the expected value of the payoff picture on the stock's historical distribution, has an edge of 14.7%. The forecast edge, which is derived from historical volatility, has an edge of -24.7%. Lastly, the smoothed edge, which is calculated by drawing a best fit curve through the monthly implied volatilities, has an edge of 1.7%. The edge is relative to the mid-market price of the trade. Greater positive edges are a theoretical benefit to the trader. We can also look at the payoff graph. The probability of profit sums the probability of the nodes for the part of the payoff picture above the zero profit line over three standard deviations. For this trade the probability of profit is 64.58%. The reward to risk divides the max gain by the max loss. Here the 1 to 1.2 is the ratio of the max gain of $360 to the max loss of $-440. There are two break evens for this Iron Butterfly at 36.4 and 43.6. The total greeks and ThinkOrSwim code complete the information on the trade analysis popout. Next, let's look at this trade in the trade builder. Over the last month, the stock price rose 1.4%, while the thirty-day implied volatility fell 27.2%. The average slope of the trendlines is negative. The heatmap on the right side of the graph is green where volatility and slope are undervalued, and red where they are overvalued. In this case, short term IV and slope are undervalued, while the long term is slightly overvalued. We can also see this trade overlaid on the monthly implied volatility graph in the chain tab. The legs for this trade are circled. For any questions or issues with the article, please contact otto@orats.com. To subscribe to the dashboard, please visit https://orats.com/dashboard Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented herein are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice tailored to your investment objectives. You should not rely solely on any content herein and we strongly encourage you to discuss any trades or investments with your broker or investment adviser, prior to execution. None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Option trading and investing involves risk and is not suitable for all investors.