ES momentum trendline sloping down all month (April) as ES continues to hit new highs. What to make of this, and how to trade it? Seems like you should be cautious on the long side due to the declining momentum. But what else?? Would it be wise to play SPY to the short side? If so, what kind of target, and/or what kind of stop? And what kind of time horizon?
If you are going to look at momo divergence, I suggest you also glance at volume. Last Friday was lowest volumes since Xmas Eve 2020. Just sayin. Good trades to ya.
Depends how you define momentum. You don’t make money on the short side with a bull losing its momentum. It’s just telling you the longs get tired. Until it either regain momentum, Or ... Break some kind of low. A weekly for example. Dec High: 3.75k Jan High: 3.86k (+0.11) Feb High: 3.95k (+0.11) Mar High : 3.98k (+0.03) Apr High : 4.12k (+0.14) Doesn’t feel like losing momentum RN.
very few people trading this in any real number (volume) ...you must hold your nose when you wade into this one. The individual stocks i watch in es look like dog sht right now in their behavior. nasdaq even worse. But the Fed will prop this til the dollar becomes worthless..so its a uptrend regardless...just ignore the smell bro.
The only certainty IMO, is that troughing volume precedes increasing volume. Bank earnings (and guidance) later this week, CPI tmrw, and newly ignited geo-political risks... although mundane, any one of those, good news or bad (assuming one can differentiate good or bad) can increase participation and/or volumes. As some other ET poster would say... Not a prediction.
ES 5-34-5 EW Osc was trending lower - slightly no biggie, then got back at it past 10 trading days. Also notice how only a few bars (6 in circle) had even gone barely negative. Price, then volume in importance. Not other way around.
These will be the most interesting years in a long time. Biden will raise taxes and then raise some more. Minimum wage will be $15 and maybe more spurring wage inflations , interest rates will just rise rise rise, inflation will roll right along higher higher.....all the while the Fed will be scrambling and scratching their balls as to where to prop and pump and stim and feed and float and plug...lol damn bro lol and what will happen is the Fed will over supply and some amazing bubbles will form for the harvest....watch close for some wild pocket bubbles...not on the indexes though, they will just gradually uptrend. Some of the best opportunities will be shorting individual companies within these indexes including /ES as the Fed cant prop a hazardous business environment...and the current environment is getting hazardous AF
I don't use New Highs/New Lows for finding highs but better indicator for "possible" bottoms and hedge those attempts. The insane amount of money pouring into economy should spur stocks to go much higher till spending stops and bills start arriving at mailboxes, people always over spend their checks. Way too many people collecting unemployment when they should be working. Cause when they need jobs, won't be much left. Granted I been selling every extended move up and hedged past 4 years, but even a broken clock right twice like last year.
People don’t grasp the seriousness of millions of self employed or former travel and restaurant workers refusing to go back to work as there making $13-$17 and hr sitting at home . I’m seeing 20 help wanted signs a day at restaurants. There desperate for workers . I’ve had to walk out of restaurants with only 20 people in them as they have no staff . The fed and govt have created a culture of handouts and no need to work .