-GDP report: +2.9% growth for Q42022, 3.2% for Q3 2022 (per US BEA) -Non-farm payroll: +220K -Unemployment Rate: 4.7% -The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in December following back-to-back monthly declines. The Index now stands at 108.3 (https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence) I think the question is by how much? +25% or +50% or +75%? or -25% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1- Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors, Chair - "Mr. Transitory", but I think he's a hawkish FED (the ball is in his court. he can't screw up now). 2- Lael Brainard, Board of Governors: hawkish FED "January 19, 2023; Vice Chair Lael Brainard "Inflation has declined in recent months, which is important for American households, businesses, and consumers. Inflation is high, and it will take time and resolve to get it back down to 2 percent. We are determined to stay the course". 3- Michael S. Barr, Board of Governors: hawkish FED "Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr cautioned the US economy would take a hit as the central bank confronts high inflation. “I think that it is the case that we are going to see significant softening in the economy,” he told the Senate Banking Committee during a hearing in Washington on Tuesday. “Inflation is far too high". 4- Lisa D. Cook (Board Member): "Lastly, inflation in other core services—a large category that covers activities as varied as travel and recreation to medical and legal services—has remained stubbornly high". 5- Philip N. Jefferson, Board of Governors "Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson said reducing inflation was the central bank’s top priority and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said officials must “follow through” with interest-rate hikes." 6- Christopher J. Waller, Board of Governors: Christopher Waller. "Inflation remains too high relative to the FOMC's target," 7- Michelle W. Bowman, Board of Governors: "January 10, 2023, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the central bank has more work to do to curb inflation, noting that further interest-rate increases are needed and officials should hold them at restrictive levels for some time to stabilize prices". 8- John C. Williams, New York, Vice Chair: hawkish "“It will take time for supply and demand to come back into proper alignment and balance, so we must keep moving,” Mr. Williams said at an event in New York. He later added that there was “a ways to go” before rates would be high enough." 9- James Bullard, St. Louis - hawkish FED! 10- Susan M. Collins, Boston - she sounded like a dovish FED. 11- Esther L. George, Kansas City - Hawkish FED! 12- Loretta J. Mester, Cleveland - she's been a hawkish FED
Market has been running up all month. Might continue the rally before FOMC, although stock indexes are at resistance levels so thats going to be harder. Sell off just after FOMC and but then continue rallying after..