technical case is in this thread the actual top was last wednesday, today's close confirms it http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=176672&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
on the dow, the 20 month moving average was 9914 -high for the month was 9917 closed below 20 month avg
Repeating myself: Original in the Kudos to MMs thread. I had thought we might be getting there, but now, forget it. Everyone & his brother continues to doubt this market. Top is nowhere in sight.
you're entitled to your opinion, but you're quoting platitudes from more ordinary markets - in terms of specifics, it';s just a bunch of bla bla bla this was a CRASH, with every 'recovering' sector running on unsustainable subsidies - 2 trillion borrowed so far. and we have 1.8 trillion a year budget deficit. The fundamental and technical case is against a new bull market This was/is the largest uninterrupted rally since the great depression - since 1996, the 20 month moving average has defined the trend i've held my fire on any top calling this entire run - not once have i said we were until 2 weeks ago, i started that thread in the first post here, that thus far, is holding
He should be looking at what everyone and their mother are saying/thinking; not everyone has a brother. Perhaps that's why he might be off a little....
I would say the easy 'segment' guess would be an spx drop down to 1019, the 200 month avg your risk, your profit/your loss