In an effort to become a better trader i am starting this journal. Goals: Forward test an idea that i was able to successfully use with stocks, but adapt it to futures. Spend the next year paying down personal debt as I test this system. In 18 months - 2 years go live. Full disclosure: I have blown up 3 times. The 1st time was in the summer of 2003. Once in 2007 and once in 2008. I traded for a brief time in 2014, but my idea was flawed. I didn't blow up; you might say I gave up, until now. Place your bets, argue amongst yourselves. I have business to attend to. I find it easier and quicker to post trades on instagram, but since it is not real money, and because of my long-term track record I won't waste your time by posting calls on ET.
My idea: Trade only on the few days where I see trend potential for the entire day. I'm watching 3 markets: corn, oil and NQ, but am limiting the paper trades to QM and NQ. Sell rallies on a downtrend and buy pullbacks on an uptrend. Here is what makes this methodology different. I set a hard stop and if it is not hit then I close my position at 3:30 pm. When I used this method in stocks I made 168% (45% win rate) on a small account in 1.5 years. More importantly this method kept me from over trading, and I was able to adhere to this systematic approach. Only time will tell if I can consistently find quite a few of these elusive trend days. @johnnyrock5932 on instagram
Volume is a leading indicator of price. If your methodology doesn't include volume, then you have an incomplete dataset of the market's system of operation. If one looks for DU in volume on the larger timescale, then one can anticipate trends on the smaller timescale. They come after decreases in volatility. However, as a counter-intuitive as this may be, all trends on the larger timescale is first seen on the 5min. Annotating and logging your trading timescale will demonstrate these answers for yourself.
Thank you for the input. Yes, volume plays a huge role as well as pace. By no means am I an expert, so I welcome the feedback. I have a paper trade on now. On any day that I make a paper trade - after the trade is closed - I will post two charts that will show what the trade looked like upon entry and then the end result. Thank you.
This is a screenshot of what the trade looked like as I posted it to instagram. Stop above swing high. Close the trade @ 3:30 pm if my stop is not hit.
Very good deduction. Pace is an early indicator of EOB volume and where PA is in the market's ever-repeating order of events. Understanding the relationship between Pace and the slope of the RTL are keys. Shifting your hard-stop to a dynamic horizontal orientation by matching the slope of the RTL is a natural extension of this.
I don't see how your very limited current market view will support your goals, but that's just me. Perhaps you'll get more applicable feedback from others more aligned with your current paradigm.
I am also looking at another chart on a higher time frame with the information that I am using to determine if it is a potential trend day. That chart will not be posted here, but I do keep those as well.
Those are the ones which clear feedback will make a difference. People trade what they can see. If one wants to trade better, purposeful learning to develop a way of Seeing is what will make the difference. Systems building is a way of Seeing. However it's effectiveness depends on it's paradigm as well as the dataset it values. Systemic thinking is a predicable path to success. Undisciplined betting and gambling mentality is one bet away from ruin. Folks attempt to arbitrage this away through stats, to a greater of lessor degree of effectiveness. All stats do is provide thesis support when doubt arises in the middle of a trade. In the end, it comes down to developing the skills to understand what being on the right side of the market is or not on your specific trading timescale. If you are not on the right side of the market, all there is to do is get on the right side of the market.