My energy trades

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by TraDaToR, Jun 15, 2018.

  1. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Hello,

    I wanted to create a thread dedicated to energy,similar to the one I made on the ag forum in 2014(https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/ag-trade-ideas.286103/).

    On top of scalping, I trade mostly short or long term spreads and butterflies based on fundamentals, forward curve shape and seasonals. As I don't know as much in energy as in agriculture, I hope the seasoned traders here will join to criticize my trades and remind me of how dumb I am to pretend to transfer my ag spreads methodoly to the energy space.

    Here its is :

    Short NG Oct18/Apr19 @ 0.304:
    -Seasonal window until mid july.
    -Oct a little rich and Apr a little cheap on a deseasonalized curve.

    :)
     
    daniel5198 and CALLumbus like this.
  2. traider

    traider

    What happened to Ags? Are you still trading them and trying to diversify?
     
  3. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Oh yes. It's still alive. I posted a trade today. 5-10 guys are posting regularly. the results are OK.
     
  4. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Any inputs on the threat of tariff on chinese imports of US energy products? Crude oil, natural gas and gasoline are targeted whereas LNG is left for now. China has become the biggest net importer of US Shale oil. WTI/Brent suffering this morning but OPEC meeting later this week should create pressure on Brent as well...
     
  5. How do you deseasonalise the NG curve?
     
  6. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    I don't know the exact formula( I have it on Seasonalgo ), but I guess they just substract the average spread over x years between the first expiry and all the others. Not sure. Like if NG N18/Q18 = -0.004 but the average of this spread over x years is -0.004, then the deseasonalized curve will be flat.
     
  7. Alex165

    Alex165

    Long ICE Gasoil Z8Z9/ Short ICE Brent Z8Z9
    - near historical lows
    - during summer/autumn Gasoil is stronger in this part of the curve

    Small size, cause of OPEC.
     
    TraDaToR likes this.
  8. Alex165

    Alex165

    Thank you for topic, TraDaToR :)
     
  9. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Really nice Alex. I may join you. I will do my homework tonight.
     
  10. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR