Need advice

Discussion in 'Trading' started by GreatDealYes, Oct 28, 2020.

  1. So, hey guys. Briefly - few months/half a year ago i decided to learn about trading. I have a nice job, but want to try the markets. So swing trading was the best choice as a part time job.
    It was extremely hard becouse english is not my native languege, and there is no good info here. How ever, i learnt the termins and the basics, read a lot of books and blogs and now paper trade.

    The reality is that i am stuck with the information - almost every blog/website have the same basic info like the other. I am borred with reading the same and same and so on, and whaste my time.

    The good books are old, and i am not sure that they are actual in the current markets.

    Ohh, i forgot every good blogger/vloger or guy that write something interesting or different is daytrader... Like this guy: https://www.sidewaysmarkets.com He is awesome - so different than others that watched, but trade on the 1 minute bars and different markets.

    I am more interested in the pullback setups with short therm strategies in the stock market. How ever i am oppen minded in different strategiieis also.Dont like using too much indicators - rather the price action itself.

    So i need advice about usefull resourses, blogs, books and so on about my problems described above and interests.

    Also interested in infos, that are rarely described

    - Algorithms/ AI trading - and how to catch them - use them-
    - Instituinoal trading - how to trade with the smart money
    - The best swing trading setups in strategies that work for current markets
    - Good resourses, blogers (i havent found none with my interests), modern books maybe
    - I dont want to watch for the news, economic events - all the day, so need usfull info, what events, news drive the market and how to watch for them easy on 1 place.

    So, i know that i ask for a lot.. I gues you know how hard it is to learn alone.

    Thanks, and nice meet you.
     
  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Learn and trade are separate matters.

    You like most want to combine them.

    Good luck with that.
     
  3. 1) Keep it simple and start with day trading individual stocks
    2) Start with small amounts
    3) Don't loose more than 1% - 2% of your capital per day
    4) Be in CASH at closing time.
     
  4. - Algorithms/ AI trading - and how to catch them - use them-
    You need to understand that, by and large, algo orders are used by large traders to reduce their impact on price. A popular benchmark for a portfolio manager is the daily VWAP. When a PM sends an order to a trader, he will compare the execution (actual price) against the VWAP. Most of the time VWAP is modeled using volume during the day, and the trader tries to reduce volume-based discrepancies (not price!!). Alternatively, for negotiated trades, like a block trade, a PM can sell a trade to a trader who takes on the risk. In a case like this, the trader usually already has buyers/sellers lined up, or will hedge the transaction.

    AI trading is split into program trading (basket orders) and CTA style trading, which is systematic momentum. Basket orders are usually index arb or "index style" investing where you have a preset portfolio (say, for example, risk on and risk off) and execute it at once. Typically you can spot this by noticing the spread between cash index and futures prices on that index.

    Finally, HFTs are liquidity providers, and their strategy is ALL about them being first to the trade. Paying for order flow, for example, guarantees orders which allows the HFT to profit off of the bid and ask spread. HFTs are generally not risk takers.


    - Instituinoal trading - how to trade with the smart money
    Institutional investors make long-term decisions based upon the fundamentals of a company. If you want to trade with the smart money, you have to understand their decision-making process and why they would choose to invest now in a security. Economics and corporate finance is your building blocks to getting ahead of these guys, as you can trade speculatively in companies you anticipate big institutions to pile into. A good example of this is a broad-based "event-driven" approach to trading (literally look up ALL potential events a company could have).


    - The best swing trading setups in strategies that work for current markets
    Swing trading is momentum intraday. Stock prices are driven by macro, industry, and idiosyncratic factors (the operational excellence of a firm vs its peers). Events, like earnings, drop important information into the market, which causes significant price moves and typically changes or maintains a trend. Stock prices are known to exhibit momentum, typically assumed to be due to the slow diffusion of information as investors under or overreaction to news. If you can to trade a stock intraday, you need to know the driving catalyst and should analyze momentum periods (there are common reversals on an intraday, weekly, monthly, and 3-5 yr basis). For a specific stock, you can analyze it to determine if it is likely to have a reversal -- a popular method includes evaluating the shape of rolling average px chgs through defined periods. Note: you need to do lots of homework to test these, though.


    - Good resourses, blogers (i havent found none with my interests), modern books maybe
    Frank Fabozzi, Olivier Blanchard, basic macro/micro textbooks, corporate finance textbook, etc.



    - I dont want to watch for the news, economic events - all the day, so need usfull info, what events, news drive the market and how to watch for them easy on 1 place.
    Limit your product group or investment style for a smaller universe of options, and hedge out the rest of the market. E.g. only trade tech stocks, and sell short XLK on a beta-basis for each lot of a tech co you are trading in the day. Then create a news feed for the companies you want to cover -- I believe you can set google alerts for this.

    Best of luck. Trading is hard work!
     
  5. ctheo1

    ctheo1

    Reading the market is quite different to trading which in turn is quite different to trading profitably / for a living. Of course reading the market in some shape or form is necessary.

    You seem to be focused on "knowledge" at this stage. If you're TA inclined, I would advise you to take a look at the syllabus (or even attempt taking the exams) of the CMT Association so you learn properly the various concepts. There are enough methodologies and techniques in their body of knowledge to keep somebody busy for an eternity. (for the record I have no affiliation with them)

    https://cmtassociation.org/
     
  6. If you have a paper-trading account: start using it. Simply experiment with the swing trading systems that you did read about. Put those trades on and see in the account what happens.
    I agree with your choice that you don't want to get involved in intraday trading if your workday is filled with your regular job.
     
  7. tomorton

    tomorton

    You are trying to make your trading much more complicated, as it seems you assume that successful traders use complicated set-ups and strategies, or use some secret knowledge to make a profit.

    There is no evidence for your conclusions. Keep it simple. The way to make money is to get into a strong imminent price move - this can be a break-out into a new trend, or it can be a continuation of an existing trend. Both work, it doesn't matter much at this stage which you pick. Demo trade both. Concentrate on set-up, not entry.
     
    comagnum and johnnyrock like this.
  8. Would suggest you to start with demo/paper trading and make your way crawling toward the consistency profit in that before opening a live account.
     
  9. MrRenev

    MrRenev

    Didn't even say what "markets" he was into.

    Here is the CME site: https://www.cmegroup.com/

    CME "courses": https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses.html#pageNum=1

    You could read what George Soros did in his famous trades.

    You got some sites, like seekingalpha, here is James Cordier page there is at least 1 hidden perl to find there: https://seekingalpha.com/author/james-cordier#regular_articles
    Obviously this forum...
    There is tradingview, people share their ideas.
    Patrick Boyle (a quant trader) has an interesting youtube channel.
    Ray Dalio too I like his vid on the debt cycle.
    GS site, the BIS, IMF, ECB.
    Etc...

    Mostly you study 2 things:
    - Future price movement. Try making calls and see if they work out.
    - Past price action. I wrote a small article on Soros famous bets and other things but I don't think I am allowed to link it, I'm not selling anything but it would still be sollicitation I guess.
    For example the Yen trended down for some reasons and Nikkei up (everyone was bearish and media was making ridiculous FUD with Fukushima) and then the BOJ told everyone they wanted to devalue their currency "bazooka it into oblivion" and it kept trending down for a while.


    The "daytrading/swingtrading educators" all just copy the same folksy wisdom that is false half the time.
    There are ones I expect to be funny such as a certain Tim and a certain Ricky but each time I try watching I just bore out it is like eating a tasteless piece of cardboard.


    Anyway you have to accumulate knowledge over thousands of hours, ask yourself the right questions (such as what are the "logical" holding periods for stocks? Years or months especially for short sellers. What for FX? Institution target days to weeks. Retail never goes for weeks with FX (like 1% maybe, at best) they almost all scalp and daytrade and also lose so...
    Learn a bit of stats too if you don't already master the basics.
    Look for edges...
     
    GreatDealYes likes this.
  10. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    "smarter trading" perry kaufman. it's all in that book.
     
    #10     Oct 29, 2020