Ok, I just finished gathering Stats in the scratch-re-entry experiment for 103 trades. This is what I found. 13% of entries lead to an immediate cascade. 22% of entries lead to a trend that does not have a MAE above 1 point. 17% of entries have a MAE of at least 1 point before the trend resumes. 23% of entries turn into a congestion immediately after the entry. - Of these only 25% lead to trends. So entries that finally lead to trends with a 1 point MAE are 57% of total entries. The other 43% of entries are: 23% of entries fail almost at the entry and turn into a REV 18% of entries turn into a congestion and then exit in the opposite direction of the trade. 3% of trades have some MFE and then turn into a REV.
Now, given that information I have to redraw my scratching reentry policy. This will modify my plan and will require further testing, that will be done during the following days.
BTW regarding the whole file, those who did not get it, was because I dont have your emails, so please PM me that info.
I have visual records (Charts of the 1 hour and 1 minute) but they are not tabulated in the excel file. Now, even though the information is there I have not really included it in the analysis, I guess I should. Thanks
Trades don't take place in a vacuum. You will likely find that the context is a larger determinant than you think.
Yes, I was actually focusing here in the supermicro, the behavior in the 5 tick. But given that the context info was also gathered is a good addition to the exercise. I will review the 100 trades and will include where they occurred.
At the open I was expecting for either 530 or 480 to be visited. At the end it seems like 530 was the way to go. Although we did not get there easily, first we had to visit twice the PML where buying was strong enough to take prices up. A lot of scratches still, and not all the trades I should have taken, as I missed the REV at 9:54. Having done the scratching exercise, the next step is to apply the same mindset to exits, I mean why lose 10 points of a winner if you can scr at the top, and reenter lower or vice versa, I am not sure yet how to deal with that but is my next goal. Meanwhile SCR has made a great deal of difference in how I see the market. My SCR rules are not ready, so I am using some sort of pre-scr plan now. So far it seems to work. Need to avoid the chop as it was my problem today.
We are starting the day in an uptrend, actually in the context of an up TC, currently the top of the TC is around 50, but perhaps bulls will try to make it to 67, so we will see. In case this upmove doesnt hold, then as we are in some sort of hinge BO we could expect bears to make an attempt at 30 in the look for followers and from there all the way to 500.