Recession sentiment of the US Economy

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Jotatcha, Jul 29, 2022.

  1. Jotatcha

    Jotatcha

    With a fall in the GDP figures of the USA for this second quater, i wish to know if this information is enough to speak about the weakening of the US currency.
    Looking at this situation, with fear arising from investor, is there possibility that the gold spot might be appreciated to the USD
     
  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Uncertainty causes Gold to rise, not inflation by itself only.

    But nothing uncertain about support turning to resistance:-
    ! XAUUSD.png

    Although I think there is a good chance new highs are made above resistance up to 1800.xx area
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2022
  3. Jotatcha

    Jotatcha

    So if i am meant to get a clue, rising inflation definitely do not push investor towards the XAU ?
    It is rather fear that might take the upper hand to increase the gold opportunity ?
     
  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Yes fear and uncertainty. Now sometimes that means inflation, sometimes not. It is just not automatic that if inflation goes higher Gold will as well.

    IMO there are just too many variables to make sense of fundamentals, except in hindsight.
     
  5. Jotatcha

    Jotatcha

    That mean a proper statistic that will be of great help will be the VIX indicator
     
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Not sure how you get from fundamentals to $VIX?

    $VIX is in the technical realm, but has its uses.
     
  7. considering the state of markets , they should have raised by 150 BPS not 75

    too much speculation and funny money in the system still

    lets bankrupt these gambling fools
     
  8. Jotatcha

    Jotatcha

    I think speculating on a US treasury will be a good thing. It will be profitable to enter this instrument. Interest rates are high
     
  9. nitrene

    nitrene

    The Fed isn't serious in battling inflation. They still believe it is transitory in the sense that they believe as soon as the supply chain is fixed all will be well.

    Disinflation (or deflation) was a product of JIT (just in time) globalism which has been pretty much dying since the Brexit/Trump election. That era has passed, there will be no return to a "normal" supply chain.

    My guess is the lower USD and rising 10-year bond will eventually reverse. The market believes that the 10-year inflation rate is 2.71%. That seems delusional to me.

    Interesting thing about Gold since 2008 is it mainly rises during Fed intervention in the economy. So I would say as soon as the Fed reverses course precious metals (along with Cryptocurrencies) will skyrocket.

    Gold traditionally rises during political upheaval. It is not really a hedge against inflation. Hard assets are. Gold is really a hedge against political collapse.
     
  10. ET180

    ET180

    No. They know what they are doing, they are just playing stupid. They know they have printed so much money, inflating it away is the only possibly way out. They'll keep acting like they are trying to fight it.
     
    #10     Jul 30, 2022
    The_Krakenite and nitrene like this.