Assuming you have skin in the game at this curious and opportunistic time, with the recent calamity we've seen, which is far from over, how has your portfolio performed? How have you reacted and adjusted? How have you liquidated? Deployed more capital at opportunities? I'm curious to get a good discussion going because I'm a bit shocked at how empty the Risk Management forum is in comparison to other sections. IMO this should be the most busiest forum on ET! Or one of the top at least, yet its dead in here. Lets get a discussion going, how have you guys done? Whats going on in your brain? Where do you think the markets are headed and how will that affect your risk? My thinkscript is giving me a 1 st.dev of -/+ $93 for $SPX, the black-boxes in New Jersey are active and yet nobody knows wtf goes on within them. All we can do is view the magnitude of movement through are computer screens and react. Vol of Vol hit 160.59 today (second all time high) on $VVIX and the skew is so inflated in the indexes I'm not too sure how to position this. Inherently the entire risk/reward structure has changed for the current moment. The implied volatility is foreshadowing an increase in ambient vol, thus we will possibly see a volatility cluster and $100 swings daily for the next few weeks. This changes the terminal distributions of all of my vertical spreads and other positions.
SDS now that there are zero commissions you can scale into long positions with a few shares at a time
Bought 35 strike april expiration on VIX when S&P was at all time highs. Paid $0.15-$0.25 for most of my contracts. The selloff actually made me 3x more than my whole portfolio was worth.
I was waiting for this kind of enviroment to test some portfolio volatility. This is as close as Dalio does it, I believe. It is interesting to see that the return is still positive without intervene from my side.
I've basically lost all gains from the last year+ in all of my portfolios. Not suffering, but certainly hurts to HODL. In my retirement portfolios I'm about 60% stock via ETFs, 20% international, and 20% bonds so I'm not risking much. Just getting absolutely crushed by the market. In my discretionary account - same story. I trade futures spreads and am in a long oil spread. Tanked my equity back down to basically where I started. What can you do? Black swans can't be predicted. I'm just glad I was in a spread. I might buy some more here in a few weeks leading into earnings. Nothing major. Just 10 or so shares of some stuff I know has value. After next earnings is when I'll ramp up buying in my retirement portfolio. I expect Dow < 19k after earnings.
Is it just a WAG or you have analysis/rationales for that? It is down almost 20%, why isn't this like Dec 2018, @dozu888's pro boys shaking the trees?
I didn't come into the 20% drop with full equity exposure. That's the best way to manage an S&P decline...have as little exposure to it in the first place when it declines. Of course, I still have more exposure than I would have liked to have...I would have liked to have been short SPY since the last ATH, but I'm never able to do that. Once it started dropping, I trimmed exposure and started selling short-duration calls aggressively against all my remaining positions. Then I started shorting ES and SPY as well as shorting ATM or slightly out of the money calls on SPY. Still, like most people, wish I could go back 3 Fridays ago when my account was at all time highs and just hit the auto-liquidate all button and take the rest of the year off.
%% That SDS looks more liquid than SDOW. Exactly. Jim Cramer said every one should have one oil stock- exactly ,@ least one per lifetime LOL. His charts nailed it long term =SPY/S&P 500=up[BUT its below 50dma so take your pick down or up.] Looks like 1999 as Paul tudor Jones said, matter of public record; or maybe like 2009. 2 months down+then great uptrend /bull market. I never bought in to the idea ,to quit in MAY even if i sell or buy then...............................
SWAG. PE ratios were nuts and there was very little value left in anything. I think we'd start to see value somewhere around 19k. Lots of companies are getting hurt really bad which is good for value. They'll finally be priced correctly.