Was looking at investing in and around the Airport industry the other day and I got to thinking about the immeasurable risks of a 'shock' to earnings or whatnot, specifically from acts of terrorism that involve air travel. Ended up in an hour long thought process which lead to a couple of frightening questions that I'm not sure I can answer. In brief, here's the thought pattern: # Who will start laying tarmac in China/India to capitalise on their increased demand for tourism and business airtravel over the next couple of decades? Lead to..... # How big will China's demand for air fares be when their domestic demand catches up with industrialisation boom? Lead to... # China's economy is going to be the biggest in the world in time and they will be the ones guzzling tenfold more oil than the U.S. and have inherent wealth far greater than the Yanks. Lead to # China will no doubt be flexing their political muscles/consumerism selfishness to the same degree or greater than the US when this happens. Would this lead to terrorist groups re-focusing their efforts on China? Lead to.... # If China were calling the shots on global politics/economics (instead of the US) would they have a different approach to dealing with terrorism than the U.S. do? Would they be more inclined to press a big red button than a U.S. President? Basically, the question here is will terrorist attacks by groups like Al-Qaeda switch to fighting China and if this is the case, is it fair to be a bit more worried about nuclear stability, given that China may be a bit more maverick in terms of dealing with threats to their lifestyle and be less inclined to sit around a table?
Some good questions there. I think organisations like Al Qaeda have their reasons for attacking the US; the US presence in Arabic countries and it's support for Israel. In one way or another they will probably continue with this until either their goals are reached or they are almost wiped out and merged into other structures. But China's role in the future will be very interesting to follow. Right now they are working hard to secure their future supply of engergy, and will of course be willing to protect these interests in the future. I think China will mainly be a target if they start stepping on people's toes. However, given China's history with human rights, they will obviously pay much less regards to human rights than the US (without going into discussion about the US and human rights). I think China's dangers will come from destabilisation within, and that they will act much more swiftly to get rid of external threats than the US. Remember that the US had many chances to do something with Al Qaeda before 9/11 (in Sudan), and that also the war in Iraq detracted from the (in my opinion much more important) Afghanistan campaign. I don't think China would allow an organisation with such a strong hostility towards it to grow, as Al Qaeda vs US, without doing something sooner.
China currently works with it's oil partners like Iran and communist allies like North Korea. Do enough research and you can see the writing on the wall who China is in bed with. What does that tell you about the future of global war?
Yes, China certainly isn't picky with it's partners, that's for sure. However, the way it works for the US (and really the rest of the world as well) is that private companies do business with the dictators, and then the oil is shipped to the world markets. Venezuela sure enjoy shipping oil to the US So, I don't really agree that China's partners in itself tells us that much about the future.