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Trend Following-Trend Commandments

Discussion in 'Events' started by Trend Following, Jun 22, 2011.

oilfxpro
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Quote from atticus:

IG thread. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=241701

And my prick is huge, ask Tango.
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Bloody prostitutes defending the paymasters

#501 Aug 24, 2012

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oilfxpro
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Quote from atticus:

I work for FXCM.
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Bloody mippet #

#502 Aug 24, 2012

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jack hershey
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Quote from Tango 6 Alpha:

Exactly! Which is more proof that using trend language is yesterdays news. A much more precise way to measure price behavior in the lower time frames, is through the lens of the Trajectory.

This concept has tremendous implications, because it opens up a whole new realm of statistical analysis of price, that never existed before AND that "trends" themselves are simple unable to define.

Keep in mind, I only use the word "trend," because it is so pervasive throughout the trading community. If I were to only use the word Trajectory, I would lose contact with the reader almost immediately. I understand the concept and the belief behind "trend think," but I have come to realize that they simply do not exist the way that most traders have been taught.

They simply cannot be used for describing price behavior at the lower time frames, because the moment you attempt to apply a mathematical model for describing "trends" at that level, you are forced to admit that they have little to no value in predicting the "next move" at the larger time frame. Therefore, the trader needs a new (different) way of describing the behavior of price, that finally unifies both the lower and the higher time frames.

Its called the Trajectory Unification Theory (TUT). I have several models and have not yet decided on which one I want to make known to the public at this time, FWIW.

That's because they never existed in the first place. That which truly exists, simply cannot disappear, or cease to exist. What you are describing are the vector transformations of price, occurring at lower time frames as the higher order trajectories evolve into a particular direction, based on the volume of buying and selling pressure. So, what we see at the lower time frames is the continual changing of directional volatility, which causes the appearance of rapid "trend change" in the lower time frames.

I call this phenomenon, Distinct Vega. Distinct Vega, is another Delta Class indicator that takes the TCD (Transequential Contiguous Delta) concept to the next logical level. The delta calculation for DV is extremely simple.

Distinct Vega has four (4) dimensions:

Distinct Vega Leading Long = Bar[0] High - Bar[0] Open
Distinct Vega Trailing Long = Bar[0] Close - Bar[0] Open
Distinct Vega Leading Short = Bar[0] Open - Bar[0] Low
Distinct Vega Trailing Short = Bar[0] High - Bar[0] Close

This volatility indicator with its four (4) primary outputs is applied to every bar of data across all time frames. Each dimension is a Trajectory.

When you combine the two (2) primary Trajectories of TCD, with the four (4) primary Trajectories of DV, you derive six (6) new dimensions of price action, that can then be used in a multitude of custom algorithms for determining future price behavior.

Again, the Historical Trend Trader is completely blindsided by this. They can't see it and therefore, they cannot account for it. Which means, they do not know when they are trading against it. And, you cannot trade against a Dominant Trajectory, and expect your trade to survive the encounter.

When you combine the Trajectory dimensions of TCD and DV, with OmegaWave Trajectories, you begin to establish a framework for being able to describe future market behavior with a level of precision that simply cannot be replicated by "trends."

With the addition of the Trajectories taken from Alpha-4, Alpha-5 and Alpha-7 Delta Class II indicators, one can get a very full picture of where price goes "next" with relative ease. Each Alpha indicator contains eight (8) dimensions/trajectories. 8 x 3 = 24. Which means that you now have a total 6 + 24 = 30 different Trajectories to use in the statistical analysis of price.

Those 30 Trajectories are merely the baseline tip of the 'Delta' iceberg. There are other primary Deltas that I have discovered and there are an infinite number that have yet to be discovered. Delta based indicators open a whole new world of possibilities when it comes to the statistical analysis of price action.

Delta Class I, Delta Class II and Delta Class III, are as far as I have been able to get in 10 years worth of research. There are many more to be discovered. The come in two (2) basic forms:

- Contiguous
- Non-Contiguous

To explain that would open the door to a lot of lecturing that I just don't have the energy to get into right now. There is a lot that has to be unpacked on a fundamental level before the higher architectures can be fully understood.

However, any Delta, by definition (no matter how you design it) must be the difference in price between two (2) price points. So, as a natural consequence there are only a handful of Contiguous Delta relationships, with the vast majority of the remainder being Non-Contiguous Delta relationships.

I hope that clears it up just a bit.
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The bottom 1/3 of your post most emphasizes change (delta is your term) And you suggest another alternate (you use the prefix non).

The HS I use is where your "change" is my continuation (See Dodd, Granville)

Since I see your "non" as a place for data suppression, therefore, were I you I would concentrate on fleshing out these separate and unrelated (on a given level of logic) things.

One clue about this focal point is that you have less than half the degrees of freedom I have seen others use. By adding the missing links, you may be able to avoid the consequences of picking one choice out of three.

As you are accustomed to using probability and switching the place in events you address, I know that you do know you are introducing unecessary, what you call, systemic risk unnecessarily.

I see you are having a contest at the Coronado. Do you ever do challenges that are not founded on anger, etc...

#503 Aug 25, 2012

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Trend Following Sponsor
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Quote from jack hershey:

The bottom 1/3 of your post most emphasizes change (delta is your term) And you suggest another alternate (you use the prefix non).

The HS I use is where your "change" is my continuation (See Dodd, Granville)

Since I see your "non" as a place for data suppression, therefore, were I you I would concentrate on fleshing out these separate and unrelated (on a given level of logic) things.

One clue about this focal point is that you have less than half the degrees of freedom I have seen others use. By adding the missing links, you may be able to avoid the consequences of picking one choice out of three.

As you are accustomed to using probability and switching the place in events you address, I know that you do know you are introducing unecessary, what you call, systemic risk unnecessarily.

I see you are having a contest at the Coronado. Do you ever do challenges that are not founded on anger, etc...
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Michael Covel is the author of five books including the international bestseller, "Trend Following" and his investigative narrative, "The Complete TurtleTrader". His Trend Following podcast has generated 3M listens. Also: Receive Free DVD.

#504 Aug 25, 2012

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Spectre2007
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Intraday trend following at work, check out this video:

 <object name="Video" type="video/x-ms-wmv" width="1280" height="1057"> <param name="url" value="http://content.screencast.com/users/Spectre/folders/Default/media/d3dae97a-7563-4521-b023-876ca09d6077/TrendlinesSupportResistance.wmv"></param> <param name="src" value="http://content.screencast.com/users/Spectre/folders/Default/media/d3dae97a-7563-4521-b023-876ca09d6077/TrendlinesSupportResistance.wmv"></param> <param name="AutoStart" value="0"></param> <param name="ShowControls" value="true"></param> <param name="uiMode" value="full"></param> <param name="playCount" value="1"></param> <param name="CurrentPosition" value="0"></param> </object>

http://www.screencast.com/t/CPdTSn4rmp

turn down volume if the music is not your taste.

#505 Aug 25, 2012

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darkhorse
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Quote from Trend Following:

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Ha ha, classic.

I took Marketsurfer's advice and put the guy on ignore, glad I did... He's like the batshit crazy aunt at the family reunion, standing in the flower garden talking to the plants...

#506 Aug 26, 2012

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darkhorse
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Quote from Tango 6 Alpha:

All of those questions are valid questions. However, none of them can be answered by something that does not have a physical existence. That's a real problem for trend traders that they have yet to answer, for the exact reasons that I outline in my original post: Mathematics, Logic and Physical Instantiation.

We can say that these questions are answered by trends, but that's a misnomer. You can even have success as a trader believing in and designing methodologies, strategies, tactics and rules based around the fiction that trend exist. The reason one can have some success doing this, has everything to do with the nature of all financial traded markets: They either go UP, or they go Down, or the go Sideways.

No trader on earth can ever have long range success, grow capital geometrically and remain consistently profitable, without having an answer for the four (4) most important factors in all of trading:

- Timing
- Direction
- Magnitude
- Probability

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Dare I say you are over-intellectualizing. There is a reason why traders with the equivalent of high school educations have made millions, while many a PhD has crapped out. Intuitive / experiential understanding can be far superior to theoretical understanding - while it is obviously desirable to have both, if you can only have one then intuitive / experiential wins, for the same reason a hawk can catch a pigeon without knowing shit about vectors or air speed dynamics. The hawk does not have 'answers' for anything, it just does what it does. See Nassim Taleb's expositions on Fat Tony vs Dr. John for more on intuitive vs intellectual.

#507 Aug 26, 2012

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darkhorse
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Quote from Tango 6 Alpha:

When the response is actually no response at all, replaced instead with deafening silence and iconic plumes of simple minded utterances taking the form of predictable behaviors, the reward is self-evident and unmistakably rich.
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What the hell is an iconic plume?

#508 Aug 26, 2012

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atticus
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It's amazing how your (sic) wormhole always appears at the same time on the chart... during the dead-zone. Amazing insight!

#509 Aug 26, 2012

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oilfxpro
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Quote from atticus:

It's amazing how your (sic) wormhole always appears at the same time on the chart... during the dead-zone. Amazing insight!
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A squeeze indicator narrows before breakouts , it looks like a dead zone.Beauty is in the of the beholder.

#510 Aug 26, 2012

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