I guess I have been dipping my toes into the CTM pool a little too cautiously and looking to close once I get to a "good" profit on the position. Your point and Cache's are very well taken.
I am watching the OIH as well and will be trading it again soon. Right now, even though it looks oversold i am waiting until 130ish or so. I suppose you can scale into a position if you really want to do it now but i am waiting it out for a better entry.
I just sold a Sep RUT 750/760C @ $0.70. Watched the price rise from $0.55 to $0.70 this morning, so I decided to take the plunge. I don't normally trade the RUT, but this looked pretty good.
I took the plunge earlier and got a fill at $1.40. I can see where you are coming from waiting for it to possibly drop down around the 130 area. It looks like it could hold at 135 so I just went for it, could be wrong though. I wouldn't be surprised by a drop down to 130, only if it goes under that level.
I also trade oih and my daily and weekly indicators are pointing down. august and Sept can be tricky with demand falling off. I think only a storm or geopolotical event will cause 130 to hold again. Could be totally wrong though. This is just from a technical point of view.
The market is up 13 points right now, I might have to take back the drink offer . Here's to a breakdown in the afternoon like yesterday !
I was going to tell you "it ain't over 'till its over" I got 1295 shorts as well. Interesting that they are only at 1.9....