ETA from this post, about an hour. But window for crashing is wide. +/- hours! P.S. The figure you want to pay attention to is the altitude, in the second column at the top. Currently around 147 km.
It's been skipping the atmosphere. Above 147, below, above. It's dropped to 137. Prolly not many skips left before it hits the thicker part of the upper atmosphere and starts breaking up. New ETA 50 minutes.
Chinese rocket segment disintegrates over Indian Ocean A large segment of China's Long March-5B rocket, pictured here during launch on April 29, 2021, has disintegrated over the Indian Ocean AFP 28 MINUTES AGO MAY 9, 2021 A large segment of a Chinese rocket re-entered the Earth's atmosphere and disintegrated over the Indian Ocean on Sunday, the Chinese space agency said, following fevered speculation over where the 18-tonne object would come down. Officials in Beijing had said there was little risk from the freefalling segment of the Long March-5B rocket, which had launched the first module of China's new space station into Earth orbit on April 29. It added that most of the segment disintegrated and was destroyed during re-entry. "Everyone else following the #LongMarch5B re-entry can relax. The rocket is down," it tweeted. The segment's descent matched predictions by some experts that any debris would have splashed down into the ocean, given that 70 percent of the planet is covered by water. "The probability of causing harm... on the ground is extremely low," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said last week. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had said the US military had no plans to shoot it down, but suggested that China had been negligent in letting it fall out of orbit. To avoid such scenarios, some experts have recommended a redesign of the Long March-5B rocket -- which does not have the ability to control its descent from orbit. "It appears China won its gamble (unless we get news of debris in the Maldives). But it was still reckless." https://www.theaustralian.com.au/ne...n/news-story/9625ec1521ad0790ab7ae26d886daaa5