%% Do you think another US debt downgrade is likely?? Don't know. I sure would want to have considered the possibility\since its happened once before. XLF is below 200dma, so that tells me something.[They have banks, brokers, insurance companies+ related.] Financial sector or most any sector has had more risk + reward than any broad benchmark. Good lesson\ woke = broke,[ESG nonsense] SVB proved that . Looks like the Fed caught the SVB mistakes; but woke = broke, may ruin a bank, it sure helped ruin SVB. Cant blame a cop or a regulator for a speeding ticket.
re: current bail-in Lebanese banks have seized accounts for the past two years. The depositors are on a lockout.
I would think the big news would be a drop in asset prices. That will force everyone's hand. As long as prices stay up they can borrow and say "look at all this collateral we have". If asset prices plunge, more banks go bankrupt, more people pull their money, repeat.
Not sure what you mean with deep state but governments, including the US, have previously gone bankrupt. Its a non zero probability.