Starting this journal for some accountability/criticism/help/self involvement/something to do instead of stare at charts. I have never traded commodities or other futures before but am familiar with derivatives. Options just really never quite clicked for me...so I am eliminating the two primary issues I had with them by switching to futures (theta and IV). Nothing but respect for you options guys but for now I really feel like this is a better fit for me. Only paper trading for the time being until I get the kinks worked out. Even though the paper account balance is $1M I will only trade mini or micro contracts as that will be what I trade with real money. I will primarily stick to commodities with the occasional dabble in VIX futures...no Indices at this time. I have never really valued paper trading and am anxious to get back in with real money but I need to get a few things figured out first. I have been trading this method about 3 weeks and so far I am glad to have started with paper lol. The System: I have developed a trading system using moving average crossovers utilizing a combination of Hull and Simple moving averages. There are actually two different systems I will be trading depending on the environment: A fast and a slow system (determined by ATR20 for that individual contract). When volatility Is low I will use the slow crossover points, high...the fast. This will be combined with a trailing stop loss and a few other rules I have picked up over the years and believe in (example: never let a winner turn into a loss aka SL @ breakeven after it goes decently green). I will use the daily chart using Heikin-Ashi candlesticks for entries/exits. Trades will be held as long as they move in my favor and trailing SL is not hit. Position sizes will be limited to 1 contract for now. As of now I can tell my entries need improvement. Account balance is green And i am doing well so far but I need to develop better methods of entry.
Current Positions: -1 (short 1 contract) YC (Mini Corn) July 14th @ 786.685 / +$156 / SL @ 781.0 +1 (long 1 contract) MGC (Micro Gold) June 28th @ 1845.68 / +$162 / SL @ 1850 Always looking for an entry into CL as it will be my primary trading vehicle due to high liquidity...close to a short crossover but I will wait. I am bullish still on Oil but this system is pretty objective...my subjectivity has burned me too many times to be considered reliable. Account value: +$3,770
Could you post a chart of something that you are NOT trading like SPY or whatever's handy and overlay it with the moving averages on timeframe(s) that you ARE using and show a couple of entries that would have been triggered by the system?
top two charts are what I use for entries and exits (although most exits will be from trailing SL). Right is slow, left is fast. Entries and exits are pretty self explanatory, each system back tested really well however I noticed quickly that past history and present moment are two separate things and without a SL in place this system would lose. due to the delayed movement with the MAs I have changed to primarily only enter once a CLEAR crossover has occurred and the lines begin separating...not simply a touch. running IBKR TWS on a 55" 4k tv and absolutely love the display space.
f*cked myself with crude short and got stopped at $182 loss. Should have been using my slow points instead of fast and I would be sitting pretty right now long @ ~$105. ATR20 should be under five for slow system, over for fast with this particular commodity. Only position I have currently open is short 1 corn still and it is looking good...adjusted my trailing SL to capture more profit in case of a reversal. So far Gold has surprised me more than the others...It is much more volatile than I had expected. Looking forward to giving it another go when the time presents itself.
quick update. I felt like something was missing and decided to add a third, longer duration moving average. I now will not go long if in downtrend, or short in uptrend no matter what the quicker MAs say to do. This has made the trades less frequent, but better overall. Account is currently +$3,957 from start.
One for one trading ms Goldie. Gotta like that so far. What's that atr do for you, entry, exit or stopwise? What's that volume histogram do for you, entry, exit or stopwise?