Recent Content by A_Hamilton

  1. What is DJT worth if Trump does not win? (spoiler; I doubt he wins now after conviction)

    Yep. That's another question. Trump seemed to beat his poll numbers by 3% or so the past two cycles. Will that reverse this cycle? I guess I'd put...
    Post by: A_Hamilton, Jun 10, 2024 in forum: Trading

  2. What is DJT worth if Trump does not win? (spoiler; I doubt he wins now after conviction)

    I think the bias of PA relative to the nation might be smaller this cycle, as minorities tend to be moving toward Trump, and Biden does better...
    Post by: A_Hamilton, Jun 9, 2024 in forum: Trading

  3. What is DJT worth if Trump does not win? (spoiler; I doubt he wins now after conviction)

    Another update from Insight Forecasts: [MEDIA] Basically, on average, a slight movement toward Biden in the polls, markets, and model. Biggest...
    Post by: A_Hamilton, Jun 6, 2024 in forum: Trading

  4. What is DJT worth if Trump does not win? (spoiler; I doubt he wins now after conviction)

    Several very good Trump polls yesterday, including a Rasmussen +5. https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls I'd discount any one, but the...
    Post by: A_Hamilton, Jun 5, 2024 in forum: Trading

  5. What is DJT worth if Trump does not win? (spoiler; I doubt he wins now after conviction)

    Trump is still favored in the betting markets. Polymarket has him at 53-54 and Insight Prediction has him at 52.5-53.8. They are only down maybe...
    Post by: A_Hamilton, Jun 3, 2024 in forum: Trading