Anybody using or used in the past a Bayesian method in his/her trading? How do/did you like it? If you stopped using it, what was wrong with it?...
Bingo. As I said before, even taking winnings out of the game requires surviving a minimum of 34 spins in a row just to get to the point where...
Sorry, I thought you were playing the second variation where winnings are taken out of the game. Why would you play the original game? You could...
Your p/l is wrong. The most you could win is N*.03 - 1.03 where N is the number of the losing spin.
OK I blew it. You get on average 50 spins before losing your account. So your net gain (on average) is 49*.03 - 1 = .47= 47%
You'd have to win 34 times in a row just to barely equal your account. That works out to almost a 50/50 bet that you'd win your account size...
Not sure if you made a mistake or if this is a trick question. If you meant to say 'you lose your whole account' then don't play the game. Risk...
For the first two moments, I got radically different results. S1 = 0.0575 ; S2 = 0.043045 ; k1 == s1/s2 = 1.33581136 If we use the...
What are the other two top forums?
Of all the unspecified ways in that insane statement about Obama being worse than Hitler, it's pretty clear that the main one for Scat is that (a)...
Sig, you must understand that for Scat, everything begins with race. Barack Obama is Black, so Scat is in no way objective about him from square...
Here is my current recommendation for a real-world trading fraction: min[ 0.9/max[ .0001 , 2*max[ -Ri ]_i=1toN ] , ½*( new_Kelly_formula )...
What's the difference between Bayesian updating and the updating the new Kelly formula is already designed to do?...
What distribution? IRL there is no distribution. Just a long and growing string of trade returns. So what do you do?
It's very scientific, it's just not revealed science. And I didn't do it for academia, I did it for me. Screw academia; what they know about...
I disagree. First most Kelly blowups happen precisely because of bad formulae. I didn't write the Bad Kelly thread and the other threads for my...
Yes.
This is trivial stuff. Just use a black swan factor (BSF): BSF == 0.9/max[ .0001 , X*max[ -Ri ]_i=1toN ] BSF prevents your next losing trade...
S5 and S6 are inputs into the proprietary Kelly formula. Same format as S1, S2, S3 and S4 in the new Kelly formula.
Sorry I misunderstood. Of course the puzzles are total artifices. In the real world we'd just have a long string of trade returns. And that is...
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