Sorry but that is bollocks. First of all, we know exactly the inputs into the new Kelly formula : R1, R2, ... RN , the trade returns. Second, we...
No closed solution for the puzzle in the OP. Too many outcomes.
The new Kelly formula does better than an order of magnitude in the real world. And it's perfectly safe at half-Kelly.
So how did you get 99.4% for the next puzzle?
No. It wasn't. botpro gave the correct answer.
I still wonder why your excel solution to the OP puzzle was so off.
K-pia This jagoff just got here and he's already establishing himself as a world-class tool.
OK, one final puzzle from me: There is a 90% chance that you win 25% of your bet ; There is a 9.9% chance that you lose...
So you're just using botpro's method. No need for me to dream up new puzzles for that, you can do so just as well as I or anybody else.
Before I do that, what is your current answer to the puzzle in the OP? Thanks.
Using the new Kelly formula, you can move up to half-Kelly and be perfectly safe.
Well done.
Big returns? Hardly. Here's what your 5% gets you:...
Not really. Thanks for the mention and the link but the new Kelly formula gives an answer of 84%, which is farther off the mark than GAT's...
News to me. In any event, it doesn't work for the six-outcome scenario in the OP. As I said earlier, GAT's answer is the best so far.
No problem. You're learning, which is the most important thing. As you've probably gathered from the other posts, this is a Kelly-type problem,...
Those links are based on bad formulae. I've posted tons about this. Do the search. The reason I asked for a number from you was so you could see...
75% is darn close to the answer I got.
No, I'm not asking you to pick one of the outcomes. They all are present at all times, even though only one of them will occur for any particular...
Betting the ideal bet size will increase your betting account almost 3% per bet on average. So you tell us: is it worth it?
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