But what if there are a thousand people doing the same thing for 100 nights. Let's also assume the realized death toll is 1.6 deaths per drunk. In...
So much for tulips. By definition of open interest, there are just as many long. However, I don't disagree that volatility is currently low.
Short interest in futures?
I guess I should just be happy that people are generally adverse to selling premium.
Ok. Scratch price/cost and replace with vol. Just trying to say things in a different way vs repeating over and over that IV > HV. But it doesn't...
I don't recall saying realized risk will be zero.
Bought BRK.A about 10 years ago. Haven't sold yet. Likely never will.
I'm selling protection at a price higher than the realized cost of providing that protection over the long-term. This doesn't sound like a...
I would agree 100% as I mention risk aversion a few posts up.
It doesn't matter why IV > HV. But if we agree that IV > HV isn't that the end of the story?
It is that simple. It's the principle of risk aversion and utility. To each his own.
It matters when I get paid based on a higher IV as compared to the risk I realize.
I agree that there is an 'unknown' component hence the long-term relationship. But there's no disputing that IV > HV or RV in the long-term. In...
Skew is there because of the implied differences in velocities of gamma between the two directions--not because of general uncertainty. I'm not...
Not instantaneously. HV contains realized risk. IV contains implied future risk. What other risk premium is there? Please educate me (not...
I'm not particularly good at timing, but over the long-term, IV > HV.
That's where appropriate position sizing comes into play. Are you saying you are constantly short delta and long gamma.
I don't know if it's gonna kill you. I try to manage my delta/gamma to break even in a gap down of 100 on the ES (vega adjusted). If it blows...
Short delta, flat gamma works.
Closed my put spread this morning within the first 20 minutes. I'm still a little short as well--a couple of short ES with covered puts and a...
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