I have just finished skimming Stephen Wolfram's book a New Science. He would say that even if the markets are not random and follow some simple...
It occurs to me that a lot of the discussion on this thread is coming from a definition of randomness. I f I say the chance of the next event...
Predict what the the market will be up? Lets say you get the direction right 75% of the time. But you only make 20 points. but when you get it...
Obviously 1. Not sure why the probabilities in a coin toss reset? They are always 1/2 surely (ignoring the coin landing on its edge of course)....
:D That made me smile thanks
Think of a card counter in BlackJack its random but the counter still has an edge think of the count as an indicator. I am fully prepared to...
Quite possibly you have an edge. A top ball player knows nothing of newtonian mechanics and wind speeds etc etc but can still catch a ball. For...
Quite right you need to have the edge first, and then use position sizing etc to ensure that you don't go bankrupt waiting for the edge to work....
Notice he says predicting the future is not rational. A particular , buyer or seller may be rational, but on aggregate the markets are way to...
Could not agree more, also you need to look at all the possible paths. What I mean is just because you made money on a trade does not mean that...
Its a measure of the relationship of the returns not the prices themselves try working out the correlation of the prices and it will be 90%
IMHO you are almost certainly right about the non-commutative algebra part. The beauty of those geometry's is that they imply an uncertain...
What a story and I can't raise 1mm :confused: :mad:
Exactly and a lot of OTC derivatives are nonsense trades to get around tax or some other regulation, just convenient to call them derivatives and...
I have noticed that all the clever posts come from people registered before 2002. :D
No thats not what I am saying it was in reply to post about perhaps he's a better broker than trader. But you never know maybe thats what he's...
I know of one broker that trades a hedge fund through himself rather than another cheaper broker. Weird but he refuses to admit that what he is...
Especially when a few days before it was trading at about $85 billion.? If you ask me the volatility is just to great for all the information...
Amen to that, I sometimes think the worst thing that can happen to a trader is to make money from the start, better to struggle and have a few...
Fees which are paid monthly or quartely why do you think they push the prices at month end quarter end. They get a % of assets under management. a...
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