Ok, if you can make a random walk as you understand it on Excel and send it to me, I can show you that my system will be profitable, if your...
There are no errors. If you have some amount of dollars = x and want to buy euros with half of it, how much euros can you buy? It's either...
MathAndLogic, here I have given examples with real prices, not with random walk models.
Actually, I don't recommend my strategy for any kind trading, except for people who believe that markets are efficient and that prices follow a...
Can you explain more what do you mean with this? I don't know anything about the second order of taylor expansion. And I have serious doubts that...
No strategy will do better than buy-and-hold, according to the believers in the efficient market hypothesis. You can see this in the papers of...
I will surely write what it has to do with options, but I need more time, which I don't have these days. Here is something briefly: Are you...
Ok, if your mother tongue is English and you say that I can't use "bet" in this sense, I agree with you :) This game exactly represents the...
The link to the calculations from my first posting can not be downloaded anymore due to restrictions from rapidshare. This is why I uploaded the...
Let's go ahead with the movements. The next 2 movements are up. We have $562.5, we buy euros with half of them = â¬1125 and keep the other half...
My portfolio is now $562.5, but if I just bought and held euros, it would be $250. And the idea of the system is that it's profitable in both...
I understand this notion. The returns in our game in percentage terms are +100% of my bet when I win and -50% of my bet when I lose. Yes.
Our portfolio is worth $750, we buy euros with $375, not with $250. This means that we buy â¬750 and our portfolio consists of $375 and â¬750....
You use logarithms to calculate expected value. I have never seen somebody using logarithms for calculating expected value of trades. And when I...
You are starting to get it :)
I'm also more into real life trading value, I just don't post my real life systems online :) MathAndLogic posted the other thread in this forum,...
What do you think, would I post it online if it had big real life value? :) It has theorethical value, which you can not appreciate, and this is...
If you understand the probabilities of up and down movements, you will understand the reason for the "time decay". It is because those ETFs seek...
Here should be written "the coin comes up heads" :) Another remark - the sequence of heads and tails doesn't matter, the end result is always the...
I'm just showing that the idea works when tested with real prices. This is how it's done. If you need examples of other people who didn't take...
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