What makes you so certain that my results are due to 100% to chance (i.e. luck?). That's the P value I'm trying to figure out and the reason for...
I thank you for your help and introduction to R value. After looking on the internet, it seems that: I can now calculate the Kelly%, the...
Thank you Mike for explaining this to me. I always felt a little inferior for not being able to describe my "edge" as other than experience...
Intradaybill, Thanks. That is extremely helpful. But sometimes I scale in/out of my trades - though not all the time. How do I account for...
Perhaps I should mention also: I'm a pure discretionary trader. I usually don't hold longer than a few days to weeks. My trading system is...
I would like to determine the probability of my success being due to chance alone (and thus not my skill). I started trading futures for the...
You make an important point. For me trading swing trading futures, I'm happy if ES moves 20-30 points or oil 2-3 dollars or gold 10 dollars....
Neke, Shouldn't you stop and re-evaluate your trading strategy? You can't lose >50% of an account. That's basically the definition of blowing...
Cache thank you for sharing that. I think it is truly amazing how right you are and how uncannily similar is my experience to yours over...
Thank you. I appreciate your advice as I'm sure many other traders here do too. However, one of my main rules is to not lose money (i.e....
Lescor, How would you approach backtesting a completely discretionary strategy based on 70% price action 20% fundamentals and 10% indicators...
Cache, Having started around the same time as you (1999 for me) and also trading options exclusively then moving on to futures, I think we're at...
See, it was ridiculous to think a few options trades gone bad could wipe out the remaining $200k in Neke's account. Nobody could be that bad at...
There are many ways to measure trading results. For me, my trading capital would not be earning that much in a savings account or money market...
How can that be? I though he had around 200k left. He could not have lost all that since last week or so.
Hi Neke thanks for sharing this journal. From what I've read from others about you, you are a good trader. However, I do not understand your...
I just realized $40k / month of $1M buying power is 4% return. The results of course are magnified from the $110k starting capital. That means...
Now that I've had a chance to read some other peoples results on this forum, 2-3% is pretty LOW. Fine. It's better than next to nothing in a...
Thanks all for the responses. I know 2 months is short (well 3 if you count my papertrade month), and I'll keep working at it while keeping...
Thanks for the response lescor. I will keep refining the system as you recommend - which means fixing psych issues. The mental mind games such...
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