Most of them are just being lucky but that's fine as long as they're aware of it. [IMG]
Well just found out IB has a Model to price options. [ATTACH] [ATTACH] Looks like they are well priced according to IB's Model.
Got lucky. Some earnings & 0DTE gambles. Yeah I only have peanuts. Not impressive absolute wise. [IMG]
The benefits might not be worth the costs. Maybe there are easier approaches to make enough. A volatility model definitely takes multiples inputs...
[IMG]
Ahahaha. That should be the case, I believe.
That's right ... I should not be trying to predict the past with better accuracy. Not the point ... IDK but the annualized 21 days lookback seems...
Did you try the Garman-Klass method as well ? Takes into about the open, high, low and close. [ATTACH] [ATTACH]
Yes, exponentially weighted 21 (trading) days. That's right this HV will underestimate pre-events and overestimate post-events volatility. But...
Maybe you don't care much about HV ? Option traders trade IV ... not HV.
What formula do you use to compute HV ? I use ... lookback = 21 pct_change = log(close/close[1]) pct_change_ema = ema(pct_change, lookback)...
By passive, I meant 1/10th the effort of active TA / Discretionary trading. You said it yourself ... the costs / benefits of being the best TA...
If being the best TA trader doesn't beat a high yield (passive) investing strategy ... I don't see the point of going beyond basic chart patterns....
Yes it's getting extended but still behaving nicely. Take a look at GEV from August '24 to January '25. These things can run for a while.
STX looks pretty good. SNOW might be about to pull something. ZS kinda broke out of a 7 days tight consolidation. RBLX ... GEV ... CRWV ...
He wouldn't have a 2008 Lamborghini otherwise. ... Maybe a 2018 (Joking).
Throwing volatility-scaling to the toilet ?
If that hard to borrow condition cease to exist then the forward will converge even more and the calls will appreciate. I bought a 1M 155 Call.
Sold NVTS @ breakeven (0.95) Bought CRWV instead.
Sucks less than 95% of the movies. Do you prefer Cool Runnings ? [ATTACH]
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