John, take a look at a new article by Michael Harris on expectancy: http://www.tradingpatterns.com/About_Us/articles/articles.html Ron
It sounds like a good idea but I have the feeling it is based on recent observations only. What I suggest is analyzing historical tick data to...
I'm looking for a low cost real-time quote service for US equities with capability of exporting historical data in ascii text format. Any...
Question: Can a public fund use its holdings to lunch a takeover bid for a public company? Thanks
Correct me please if I'm wrong but the problems start when one is mistaken and the top or bottom is not there. In that case returns are reduced...
That's the name of the game! Ron
Good post! Ron
I paid $1,495 for a five year lease. I think $175 is for an upgrade from earlier versions. In principle you are correct, APS is a "white box"...
I find it very interesting that a few QQQQ patterns in an articel by Michael Harris published by Active Trader in 2002 still perform very well, as...
That says nothing really. The probability when using Kelly to lose 1/n of your equity is 1/n. Thus, if you have 1,000,000 the probability to lose...
This does NOT account for the fact that you can have a streak of losers and given the fractions used, you will never be able to recover your...
gbos, thanks for the nice quantitative approach, which really explains the geometric growth rate but do you think you can buy 6 contracts with 10K...
Has anyone tried installing and running APS Automatic Pattern Search full version (not the demo) on a Vista machine, 32 or 64? Any problems...
You're probably correct about the simplified version of %K traders use but the general form of Kelly's formula applies to non-Bernouli...
maxpi, can you be more specific? (1) or (2)? Also, can you explain a bit the margin problem? Ron
Good post. Someone told me once that if you trade long enough there is always a losing streak with your name on it enough to wipe you out so...
Is %K the amount to put at risk or the amount to invest? It seems there are conflicting views as expressed in another thread. For instance,...
Simplistic thinking. I think you totally missed the point. Nobody spoke about "total risk control" but you. Obviously you mean something...
This is the correct way to apply the formula. If your stop is $10 and the trade is a loser, the loss will be $2,000 or 2% of your equity. The...
It's called the "wealth out effect" and the government participates in it also with capital gain taxes etc. I can't believe there are people...
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