You guys are so achingly anxious for this to go up it's hilarious. You may be worried about burning through capital, but since the 2y is...
I just checked my desk, and there's not a single thing in sight written in cursive. In fact, the only hand writing is on postit notes, and those...
This I think everyone can agree with. OP makes no sense.
I've looked at options. Their nature seems to be too much in the vein of "one of us is going to blow up" for my liking. So I generally avoid...
There are options on the futures for the 2s. I haven't looked at them though - I'm kind of allergic to options :D I'm not really a bond trader...
My short is looking pretty good too. If I'm right, Weds. was the top for the 2s.
I don't think the trade on the 10s is a good as the trade on the 2s or 5s, but either way overall I think I like it.
Shouldn't we use the 2s since those are the ones with < 1% yields, which is what this thread is all about?
Except it's not obvious. For example, US equities still have a fair amount of growth priced into them. Those two markets are of roughly equal...
Uh, no it's not. In bonds I have interest rate risk. In cash, I have none. The only time it would be a contradiction is if I decided a priori...
No it's not. Let's say I buy 2's today, betting that the economy will go nowhere. So I keep them for a year, collect my 1/2% yield, and if...
I actually meant to type 2's, not 5's. I think it's possible 5's will fall a little more, but I'm perfectly comfortable short 2's. I took my...
Zero of course, but you get to skip the brutal interest rate risk.
This is a non-explanation. The prices of 2s may have been exploding, but it's not going to do any more exploding. Bond have a price cap - no...
What's so heinous is the risk-reward profile. If the bet comes right, and we have a lost decade, you make 1% on your capital. If you're wrong,...
I think the argument that bonds are overpriced is better than the argument that stocks are underpriced. In fact, I would suggest the situation is...
This argument doesn't make much sense - in order for a trader who buys bonds at < 1% yield to make money on price, he has to find someone else...
I don't fully grasp your argument. But it's beer:30 and my birthday, so I'll have to ponder it tomorrow.
No it doesn't - you may be able to borrow money for the next 90 days at 1/2% or whatever, but you can't do it guaranteed for 1-5 years. So you're...
It seems sensible to me that if you've got a future with physical delivery, and have a situation where you can get in a position and then have no...
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