Just wondering, where were those loving JPM now in February of this year, just three months ago? That's the last time it traded around $37....
Loew's Tisch picking up a theory that Hugh Hendry made earlier: He thinks the US will see an economic revival in a few years time based on the...
I personally pay no attention to carry at all, positive or negative. I trade the major currencies using the CME FX futs and use those prices for...
I don't disagree here, I'm pessimistic about the prospects for sustained inflation-adjusted gains in US stocks over the next 5-10 years. I keep...
No thesis to share as I enter and exit exclusively on technicals, although I use fundamentals in single stock selection. Equities mostly US,...
As Daal is the only one disclosing his entire allocation I also took a few mins to put together my asset allocation numbers. As % of my net...
You'd be surprised. Big fortunes are lost and watered down all the time, often due to over-concentration in a high-beta investment. Good...
Just bought a couple Swissy long bond contracts for a trade. They are trading on the EUREX/SOFFEX and have OK liquidity (unless you trade 100 lots).
I agree with you, however, I didn't mean strong trends or fat tails, just big gaps. If you use the underlying and a stop you're exposed to gap...
Completely disagree. To me stops (and of course slippage and gaps) define everything I worry about risk-wise. I am sure a hardcore value investor...
If you look historically some of the best (or rather 'fastest payoff') trades were made by betting against the direction of carry at the right...
No obviously I understood exactly what you meant. a. Something unexpected happens and markets become more volatile. Why exactly did my risk go...
oops misread the 1.19 there. My bad.
You mean the outlandish 1% annual carry?
Over the years I have probably been stopped out of two dozen or so currency positions thanks to CB intervention. None of them resembled a 'freight...
Long @ 20 stop at 19? You've got to be kidding me.
I never understood this type of argument. I never allow an underlying macro gut feeling dictate what trades I am allowed to enter. If a trade...
See it's just a difference in personal approach. I don't mind entering trades even if there's few fundamental arguments for them... there may...
I don't doubt that but there's nothing exciting about entering a trade with a positive expectancy. It doesn't guarantee you're right. I don't see...
You ignore negative vs. positive expectancy.
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