I would like to start this journal in order to (primarily) keep me honest; make sure I do my nightly homework (bonus) receive constructive feedback from experienced traders as I learn to trade I am new to ET and I think I like the forum format and this community. I shall fill in some more context later (autumn leaf raking duties taking up too much time). In general, in those journals, I plan to post one or more 5min-TF (or other LTF) intraday recap slides and one or more D1-TF context slides. So here we go: 5min Chart Recap (high-level plan for tomorrow included): ^10/9/23 es 5min chart (US RTH). TR=trading range; ff=final flag; BO=breakout; PB=pullback; WB=wedge bottom; WT=wedge top; DB=double bottom; HL=higher low; H3=high 3 (often a wedge bull flag pattern, PB of a bull trend leg, for leg counting details, cf al brooks and his books) additional 5min (spike+channel market cycle) 60min Chart (because I think it adds a little more context) HTF (D1) context ^my thoughts are explained in the callout box. personally, I think the bears would try to prevent a gap up and go tomorrow (lest the bulls can point to it and say, hey that's a large island bottom) we closed firmly about a bear trend line, today showed decent follow-through buying and formed spike and channel with yesterday/friday. around 20ema and the higher swing high (9/21 high), it's not unreasonable to expect some sideway trading range price action (would work with the spike + channel + channel flattening market cycle evolution)
Haha leaf raking duties,you must live up north.The woods still looks like a freakin jungle around here(Texas).
I like your work, very nicely done. My analysis is comparatively much simpler. I simply focus on Swing Pivots, (turning points) Everything, in every time frame, on every instrument, on every time, tick, volume, or range moves from the pivot. My analysis involves answering just 1 question. #1 Is this a pullback or a pivot break? Welcome to the Forum, and may your journey in Trading be prosperous.
Win rate is irrelevant, the only thing that matters is avg win per trade ratio is higher than avg loss per trade ratio.
i still look at trade win/loss ratio and profit/loss ratio... but the bottom line is... am i green at the end of the day/week/month
To the OP here is what I see. FYI: Not so much nomenclature and patterns. Those things are not that useful because: 1) identifying them is a step removed from actionable information. 2) There are so many, that few are that reliable on ES. I would say 1 in 8 are reliable enough. Comments are in the format: Candle number and comment. Short on 6. 6 Gap fill test, confirmed by 7. Out on 7, fast alpha there 11-12 retest. short on 11, Out on 14, the 7-8 retest. Stop on New daily High+ some. If it tries then exit on the FIRST pull back. Long on 17 after the overshoot of 1. SL on 22 and out on 24. Similar stop as above. No short on 25-26-27. 3rd test of range. let it resolve. NB how the overshoot is bullish. Watch 32 closely, the Breakout. Long 43 after the Higher low of 40 and 42 versus 28, and resistance becomes support. 42 low is the stop. Continued long: SL on 49. Let it run. Exit on new high after 62. 75-76 pass. could be long but too late in day (added risk) and would want to see the volume on 62 to see if the range holds. Larger players might move this late in the day. Of course all after the fact, so easy a pie. But if you cannot do this after the fact, you have no chance to do it in real time. --fin
%% THAT; + do i have some resting orders in, yes, not on ES, but yes. Leaf raking can rest, i hate with a neat leaf raking job, next week more leafs, resting on groundLOL
I didn't expect leaf raking to be such a hit topic lol. @tomkat22 yes, I live up north. used to dislike all the yardwork. now I appreciate that it gets me outside, keeps me moving, etc. considering how sedentary a trading lifestyle can get... Today's recap 10/10 5min es chart 60min chart D1 for context I made several newbie mistakes today, as usual: B6-9: I knew the BO was strong and likely to succeed but I kept talking myself out, "this one is too close to trading range top and big resistance level, context is bad"... despite the fact there was plenty room to that resistance level B34-36: I ignored wedge top and inside-outside-inside pattern in a reasonable reversal context because I thought the bull momo was too strong, and any correction may be sideways only B41: related to the prior mistake, given all that signal and context, this outside bull bar overlapping prior bear dojis was a good bull trap. a stop entry to short 1 tick below would be reasonable, but i didn't take it, i simply wasn't paying enough attention to the possibility of a deeper PB at that time B43: I took a stop entry short after this bar, aiming for a MM down. I thought it had size, no tail, decent context going for it. i didn't like it was too big though, in hindsight it coulda been a sell vacuum test to a small TR bottom. I should have waited for a PB to sell (B56 after 3 pushes PB to EMA wedge bear flag would be a better signal/entry), but I hated that I kept missing reasonable BO setups since October so I was a bit impatient here Apart from those issues, I managed fairly ok today which is a 6/10 for me, considering I nearly tapped myself out after leaf duties yesterday LOL BTW I'm going through your replies. Thank you all for your feedback. Am happy I chose to keep a journal here. Hope everyone has a good session!