Ackman is so Arrogant and rigid in his thinking; I think, sooner or later he will run his fund to the ground.
Of course he is, where else can you lose $4B in VRX, and instead of taking profit that you had at one point in HLF when it fell to 30's TWICE, you decide to convert, the whole position into puts recently. I listened to his ADP spiel on CNBC, last week, but don't think it'll matter. To the whole, deep ITM option discussion, last week, that is what his ADP position is...$55+$60 calls, which allows him to control 8% without putting down another $2B, I think he said. He has 2% outright, I think. It's also not, the 1st hedge fund, he had one blow up, a decade ago. Add in the fall in CMG and Wall St. is determined to knock him out IMO.
August of 2015, technically speaking VRX gave a major sell signal. Too bad, fundamentals are so sacred and technicals such villains. In WWII, German pilots delivering supplies to Stalingrad reported several heavy concentrations of Soviet troops in the area which could pose danger to the flanks of the 6th Army already in the city. Too bad their reports were ignored higher ups, saying these troops will focus north areas for another operations. However, in few weeks the Soviets destroyed the flanks (Romanians) and closed into Stalingrad city, completing the encirclement and rest is history. Ignoring the big picture is not advised and especially in a big game of like $4B investment.
Slick Billy, take your profits in ADP and be merry. $45-50 range for ADP is on cards. If ADP takes out the high of $121 then of course this short is out of play at a loss.
This is the advantage stupider people like me have an edge over far smarter people like Ackman. Because I admit I am stupid, I get out of danger far sooner than him. I may not make as much money as Ackman does in good time, but I will still be around when bad time hits, thanks to a combination of stupidity and cowardice. I am sure he will do far better than me when it comes to raising money which I don't. He speaks intelligently because he is intelligent indeed. Investors will flock to give him money because he is very impressive when he speaks and quite good-looking too. Investors will yawn when they hear of my simple, primitive strategies which befits stupid people. Despite everything, I am glad to be stupid and invests only my own money. No investors will have confidence in stupid and cowardly people like me.
Ackman can be arrogant because he is rich....and the arrogance has cost him big-time as he refuses to acknowledge when he is wrong. Yesterday's interview with his statements about HLF does prove he is uber-smart....boy, did he know his numbers regarding HLF's debt and buy-back program. Bottomline: take Ackman's trades, but use stops !!!
Here's a blurb posted today about him. https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/ar...l-ackman-fumbles-activism-how-tos-in-adp-loss