crayon will make $ 1 million

or will die trying

nov 2
earnings nov 4
price at time: $100-101ish
BABA -debit call spread
long 103 nov 28
short 104 nov 28 (0.25 std)
days to ex: 25
probability: 40%
debit:$36
max gain:$64
close at: $50-54
ROC: 50%

note: picked debit that is 50-60% of max credit.

if probabilities play out, should return approx 16% over 100 trades.

 

UPDATE
BABA earnings play
debit:$36
closed 103/104 debit callspread
@$50.
profit: $13 per lot (36%)

 

- Should have recalculated. profit. actual spread contract worth 1.00. should have sold between 65-75
- shouldve considered rolling upper strike for reduced loss and selling the 103 strike for an insane profit!