DOE Crude Forecast is -5190 DOE Gasoline is -3062 API Actual Crude is 1026 API Actual Gasoline is 0066 Will therefor use a forecast of = -2500 for Crude oil Will therefor use a forecast of = -1500 for Gasoline Remember that OIL is a commodity, so more oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive deviation means a SELL on OIL and a negative deviation means a BUY on oil! So, we must reverse the triggers!! Check out the great move that API private report created last night here! Nice spike and continuation! See charts here.... https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=30120;t=2021-02-23;r=M1 Last week’s DOE report didn't trigger for us but was very close! See charts here.... https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=29285;t=2021-02-18;r=M1 Trade plan.. For non-slip platforms will use a timeout of 100ms For platforms with slippage will use a timeout of 500ms T1 = 3900 dev, with max conflict of 1500 on Gasoline T2 = 4900 dev, with max conflict of 2500 on Gasoline T3 = 6000 dev, with max conflict of 3500 on Gasoline Additionally, we can set up another T1 trigger of +-5000 on Gasoline if Oil deviates by at least +-1750 On platforms that allow slippage control, we can run the same setup but allow GAS conflicts up to 5000 on all triggers.
You have been posting quite a few similar threads. As this is posting #1, we will be more critical. You are probably not aware that for the past few months, the Wed inventory data release has virtually no impact on the crude oil price. The questions you need to answer is: What so unique about this Wednesday vs the previous few Wednesdays? so besides showing those max conflict, T1 trigger, T1 T2 T3, deviation ... things, you need to show what so unique about this Wed vs the previous few Weds. If not, your posting is of no useful value. Please review your other new threads and see if it is of useful value.
Hi Maxinger This gave a great a move last week, 36 pips in the first 1 minute, followed by alot of continuation. see here :- https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=29285;t=2021-02-18;r=M1 2 weeks ago we got 30 pips in only 1 minute, see here :- https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=28647;t=2021-02-10;r=M1 I think this report is a great mover, and deserves traders attention and understanding. Thanks James
The US Crude Oil Market is an analog of the US Equity Market. Even during March of 2020 where supply far outstripped demand - the WTI contract mirrored the S&P 500. I traded Energy Commercially and for a Hedge Fund during the course of my career. The insane amount of North American supply has made the API and DOE releases much less relevant. Hint - look at the API Supply metrics and the Baker Hughes Rig Counts since 2011.
yesterday, crude oil price started to move up massively 5 hours before the inventory data release. It went up massively by 190 pips/ticks! crude oil price moved mainly due to the equity market. those who waited for inventory data release to trade might not be able to profit from it. A few years ago, crude oil inventory data release has a very great impact on the price. as mentioned, it is quite common for the market to be immune even to major economic data releases ( including Germany PMI data). You need to go through the past few months data. And study the impact of economic data release vs the financial instruments.
Hi Maxinger I agree, Oil was bullish pre the inventory data release! Studying market reactions is important, also understanding how that inventory data release will affect the underlying price on the day! Some days it will be in focus, other days markets attention will be elsewhere. This release may not be as good as it was in the past, however, it still offers some nice pips for traders. I have been trading macroeconomic news successfully for over 11 years, studying the initial spike and further price continuation beyond that spike and in those important few minutes after the release is a massive part of my full-time job. Trading news events at the moment are tough, but it's getting better. Last year was all about "covid" and not macroeconomic news, but that's slowly changing again. I'm confident I'll bank plenty of pips this year. Thanks for your contribution to the thread. Thanks James
today news is an enormous rise in crude stocks. and what.. market is rising as there is no tomorrow. the equities arent hot today at all.. whos is buying the oil then? i just cant see it. share your 11 yrs wisdom pls.
For the past 15 years or so trading news in the Energy and Interest Rate spaces has been risky - I'm talking about my own personal experience. It's no secret that big Commercials will wait for a number to bring in liquidity - and that enables them to unload or create a position.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Considers-Keeping-Oil-Cuts-Unchanged-Through-April.html "The market has been expecting some sort of production increase from the OPEC+ alliance in April, especially in light of the recent oil price rally. According to Reuters’ sources, however, some key members of OPEC have proposed keeping the current level of OPEC+ cuts intact in April, while it is not immediately clear if Saudi Arabia would reverse its extra 1 million bpd cut from April. Following the Reuters report that OPEC+ may not increase production from April after all, contrary to most expectations, oil prices rallied by 2 percent as of 7:20 a.m. ET early on Wednesday."
Really serious oil traders subscribe to Platt's. You're going to need better information. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/products-services/oil