Day Trading Thoughts For Tues. May 5

Discussion in 'Trading' started by erikrkolodny, May 5, 2009.

  1. erikrkolodny

    erikrkolodny ET Sponsor

    On Friday, the Federal Reserve postponed the release of the findings of its stress tests on the 19 largest U.S. banks as bank executives debated the initial findings with government examiners. The results, originally scheduled for release yesterday morning will now be out some time Thursday afternoon (likely after market hours, I’d presume). The ‘good’ here is that no matter what one thinks of these exams much less the credibility of the tests, it appears as if a good faith effort to get things right particularly by bank executives is being focused upon. Bankers obviously have a right to understand what is happening to their own banks so time has been granted to make sure everything is as understood as positive. However, the negative view is just as fascinating and reasonable. One of the major issues in this very mechanism is how exactly the results will be viewed. The fact that the findings are being delayed shows that there may well be worries about the reactions in stock prices by the banks which may need a lot of help. In fact, there have been great pains taken by government officials to note that this is a stress test rather than a solvency test. Thus, there are major worries that the weaker banks could suffer a near complete collapse in their stock prices – entities like Regions Financial (RF) and Fifth Third Bank (FITB) in particular are being focused upon. For day traders, there are two issues at stake here. First, it is a complete guessing game as what will be said about which bank. It is widely assumed that most banks will be OK; indeed, entities like GS went to the private market for funding several days ago rather than the government- something they would not have been able to do if hey needed governmental support (in all likelihood). But one cannot day trade based on what he/she thinks will happen; for instance, if one thinks WFC will need money, it does not mean on any given day that WFC will decline as the perception at the moment is that everything is going to be fine overall ergo you have huge rallies in these stocks. Second, things will likely remain somewhat quiet volume-wise until these stress test results are released. The relatively illiquid markets mean day traders must focus upon the opportunities which present themselves- particularly those in the early morning when things are more volatile. Thus, monitor the situation closely and do not take any undue risk.

    Markets in Asia were slightly higher overnight with Tokyo up just under 1%, but prices in Europe are actually slightly lower right now. Oil is down a bit with bonds, currencies, and the metals quiet. Just as I missed the subtle cue yesterday from what the overseas markets were telling us in totally guessing incorrectly that it’d be quiet yesterday, I don’t want to miss that cue this morning in (re-)learning my mistake. With banks having run-up sharply into the close, it is likely that there will be a bit of a pullback just after the open; JPM and WFC both rallied almost a dollar in the last few minutes of the day. Thus, look for a slight decline yet the markets are well bid right now as the S&P 500 going into the black for the year yesterday has brought some of that ‘train is leaving the station’ feeling into the situation. Thus, use financials (particularly JPM and WFC) as your benchmarks to guide the rest of the day. Remember, the purpose of day trading is to quickly enter and exit situations…if things change (as they did yesterday rapidly), change with them.


    Reiterating-
    Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
    If the whole story is not there -
    If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-



    Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

    MGM- posted earnings after the close; indicated it is in the process of selling assets and modifying debt…LVS and WYNN will likely move with it

    GERN- mentioned on “Fast Money” last night

    EOG- decent earnings

    HLF- great earnings

    CRK- good earnings

    AFG- good earnings

    FOE- closed on a high

    EL- closed near a high after posting great earnings yesterday morning

    JPM, WFC, GS, MS, PNC, USB, BK, STT- among the big financials which closed near their highs

    PFG- decent earnings

    SYKE- decent earnings

    WAC- closed on a high

    CPSL- closed on a high

    NIHD- closed near high of the day

    PLCE- continued its massive recent rally in closing near yesterday’s high

    CROX- closed near a high

    XTEX, XTXI- among the tiny energy entities which had massive short covering yesterday

    XTO- closed near a high

    VNO- closed near a high

    FST- closed near a high

    FR- closed near a high

    SLG, WL- among the smaller REIT’s which closed near their highs

    ALY- closed near its high

    CLW- closed near its high in a huge move after great earnings posted on Thursday

    TKLC- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night

    HLS- decent earnings

    TEVA- decent earnings

    CTSH- good earnings

    KFT- good earnings

    MVL- good earnings

    LLY, AMLN, ALKS- announced a new drug application for once weekly Exenatide has (finally) been submitted to the FDA

    RAIL- good earnings

    VRX- good earnings

    Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

    MYGN- terrible earnings

    FMC- bad earnings

    CHK- bad earnings

    MCK- bad earnings

    HOLX- terrible earnings

    HLIT- terrible earnings

    SNHY- bad earnings

    FCN- closed near a low

    ZBRA- bad earnings

    DBD- bad earnings



    Earnings:

    TUES MAY 5 BEFORE

    ADM ADP AVP

    AYE BAM CEG

    CHD CTSH CVS

    DBD DEI DNR

    DRH DUK EMR

    FCL FE GET

    HEW HLS HNT

    HW ICE JOE

    KFT LM MAC

    MLM MVL NAT

    PAG PCP PER

    PGN PNW PQ

    RAIL RBA SE

    SRE TEVA UNT

    VNO VRX VTR

    WEC WTI WY

    WYNN XEC ZBRA

    TUES MAY 5 AFTER

    ACAS ALTH AMMD

    ARG BBG BRE

    CDR CEPH CIM

    COGT CRL CTX

    CUZ DIS DVR

    ERTS HCC HLTH

    HLX HRS JCOM

    JKHY LNC LVS

    MWA PBI SGY

    UDR UPL VCLK

    XCO


    Good luck today.

    Erik R. Kolodny