Fed’s Fischer says markets might be right after all

Difficult to judge the impact of the global selloff on U.S., central banker says

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-fischer-says-markets-might-be-right-after-all-2016-02-01

 

Global selloff. S&P down....what, 6 percent? After rallying for 7 years...

 

These days, many panic after 2 down closes. Years ago 20-25% dips in the market were much more common and considered "just noise".

 

That's not what he said.

 

Now, c'mon, when did the Fed EVER correctly forecasted a recession?! It was always a catch-up.

BTW Fischer got it all wrong. The FED has always followed the order from the market.

 

The stock market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.......

 

Of course, always in hindsight. Uncanny, indeed.

 

Tao, I have the may 2015 high as 2134.72 and the January 2016 low as 1812.29 that gives me a 15% correction from the May high to the Jan low. this most recent Jan 20 low makes a double bottom with the Oct 2014 low. I'm guessing that this is it for now. The next stop down would be 20% at ~1707. I fully agree we were due for a correction. Possible we could move as low as 1700 , but if we do, I wouldn't expect it until later this year. I think the bottom is in for now wiyth this recent 15% correction. Once you get past 20%, in my opinion, you have gone past what is reasonable to call a correction, and one expects a reason other than stocks having just got too far ahead of the economy and therefore needing to correct. Of course there is usually a trigger event, China in the present case. As stocks get toppy, as after a seven year bull market, we start to get abit anxious and become more cautious about buying, then all it takes is a mild trigger event to start the correction. (Is my calculation off somewhere?)

 

Its not about just the stock market, the Fed hiked rates and promised another 8 hikes or so over 2 years. Then what happened? Interest rates WENT DOWN, look at bond yields.