It's been nine years since I have seen so much fretting and nail biting about 25 basis points, but at 40:1 it could be a big day (or like in most forsex, fore sex, for sex, forex, fx moves a few big minutes.) Harder than hell for me to read. I can't tell what is already priced in anymore. You'd figure a raise would be a big move in the dollar, but I don't know. Maybe set up some kind of a strangle? How are you going to play it? I know if I have a big profit going in I am going to get flat. But if I am flat going in I might try to put something small on. I just want to get it over with.
Trade the price action created after the report, as per all major reports. Having a position just before major reports, unless long term play, is a characteristic of amateurs and not professionals. The excitement and the media gets all the noobs involved, when they should be patiently waiting, some in time, eventually learn the right way....
I'm doing a long straddle. SPX is nearing the end of a triangle pattern, so this is going to be a big breakout move to the downside or to the upside. I'm not sure which, hence, the long straddle. It's either going straight to the 200sma in a few days or back to retesting 1867. http://investingtrack.com/how-this-correction-will-play-out-part-two/
yeah, that's kind of what I am thinking only maybe on the USD since all I trade is pot fx (oh sorry, "spot fx.") What kind of time frame are you looking at holding when (not if) you get filled? I don't know, I hate to just sit and watch it when it may be another nine years
For ES, I have a premonition that price will breach one side of that triangle that everyone is looking at to fool in the early breakout guys then go the other way. No positions going into it. Going to see how we close , then possibly take a position .I was thinking bull with a close above ES 1992 , bear with a close below 1929 on daily chart . I don't know if that'll happen on FOMC day but like I said, we probably at least test one side and I'll be watching the close. DX has quite the tail /hammer on the weekly, seems bullish for dollar at this point but we'll see what happens. Good luck, manage your risk above all.
Yes that seems to be the most probable outcome...I had a hunch that we would drift higher pre-FOMC just based on how much put buying/vix buying there has been since 8/24...
Kommi and zr1 are dead on. The first fast move will be a fake out to load up on liquidity. Catalyst news events are basically owned by algos now. There's no real liquidity and you can see it in the book right before the news is released. Everyone should be flat. If you want to be a baller then I'd use a resting order where you think the first fake move will go.
Yes, I won't trade any outright futures contracts, but I've been legging into spreads on both sides (only moderately well), similar risk profile to a strangle albeit done at a better average cost...
My swag swag - acronym for Scientific Wild Ass Guess What ever the announcement - drive price down (scaring out the weak & meek).., buy it.., drive back up into the EOM / EOQ My plan - trade accordingly no matter what RN