https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sjyzhlohee The head of France's foreign intelligence service said on Tuesday that some of Iran's highly enriched uranium stocks were destroyed by American and Israeli strikes, but there was no certainty on where the rest was now located. Speaking in an interview on LCI television, Nicolas Lerner, who heads the DGSE, said all aspects of Iran's nuclear program had been put back by several months following the air strikes, but while Paris had indications where Iran's highly enriched uranium stocks were there would be no certainty until the United Nations atomic watchdog returned to the country. The statement aligns only partially with the U.S. assessment. Last week, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the Israeli and American strikes likely set Iran’s nuclear program back by one to two years. He reaffirmed that key facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan had been destroyed. The Pentagon’s assessment followed days of conflicting statements about the scale of destruction at the three Iranian nuclear sites—especially Fordow, considered the most fortified and critical. On the night of the American strikes, Trump declared the sites “completely destroyed” and claimed Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated.” But hours later, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine took a more cautious tone, noting the sites were heavily damaged but stopping short of declaring them destroyed. Further complicating the narrative, CNN and The New York Times later reported that one U.S. intelligence agency estimated the strikes only delayed Iran’s program by several months. The report reportedly angered Trump and his aides, who accused the media of minimizing the operation’s impact for political reasons. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed this, insisting the facilities were “obliterated” and accusing critics of undermining the president. Trump has since maintained that the nuclear facilities were destroyed, claiming Israeli operatives had visited the Fordow site and would soon report on the situation at the site. However, Aryeh Deri, leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party and close Netanyahu ally, dismissed that claim. An Israeli Atomic Energy Commission report published after the war stated that the combined U.S. and Israeli strikes had set Iran’s nuclear capabilities back “many years.” However, CNN later reported that Israeli sources privately estimate the delay is closer to two years, and that damage to Fordow was “less than expected.” Meeting with Netanyahu at the White House Tuesday night, Trump again insisted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure had been “wiped out.” When asked about the possibility of another strike, he said, “I hope we don’t need to. I don’t imagine we will. They want to talk. They’re in a different place than two weeks ago. We’ll do everything to ensure Iran doesn’t go nuclear.” Trump also said Tehran had requested to resume nuclear talks. “When this happened, I said—what’s the point? Everything’s already destroyed. But they asked to meet, and I will. If we can sign something, great. I think they gained a lot of respect for us—and for Israel too.” He did not rule out reaching agreements with Iran that would not be formally documented. “I think it’s best to put it in writing, but after the incredible outcome of the strike, I’m not sure we need to. That spoke louder than any paper.” Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff—who is also mediating between Israel and Hamas—was present at the leaders’ dinner and is also handling nuclear negotiations with Iran on the U.S. side. He estimated that renewed talks could take place “within the coming week.”
Obviously the strikes by the U.S. and Israel only set Iran's nuclear program back a few months. Iran moved the enriched nuclear material near the beginning of the Israeli operation so they still have enough to build approximately ten bombs. The nuclear plants that are used for enriching uranium were not struck because of the fear of a large-scale radiation event. The only thing taken out was the majority of centrifuges used by Iran to enrich the uranium. Iran will need to build thousands of IR-1 centrifuges to replace the ones that are now disabled. The parts can easily be ordered by China and it will only take a few months to assemble these new centrifuges. The taking out of Iran's leading nuclear scientists probably had more of an impact than the elimination of the centrifuges. However at this point the plans for Iran's first generation of nuclear bombs is probably well defined and it is just a matter of execution. The deaths of these nuclear scientists most likely will impact future evolution of Iran's nuclear munitions plans, not the current plan.
Trump should have never canceled Obamas nuclear deal.He also shouldn't have attacked as it seems Iran was content with not having nuclear weapons but having the ability to get them in a short period of time if needed.Now they know its needed.
I agree that Trump never should have cancelled the nuclear deal with Iran. However my reasoning it not that it was a good deal -- but the U.S. needs to be known as a nation which sticks with the deals it has made rather than unilaterally backtracking on them (even with a change of President). Backing out of deals ensures that other nations will not trust or support future deals if the U.S. does not adhere to its written agreement.