http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/gold-hyperoverbought/ â. . .we shall urge the greatest of caution upon everyone, everywhere regarding gold. It is not just over-extended to the upside; it is hyper-extended. It is not just overbought; it is hyper-overbought. We cannot strongly enough urge everyone to avoid buying gold here and we shall go so far as to suggest that those who are long begin the process of quietly heading for the exits and to reduce their positions to the most minimal âinsuranceâ positions possible. Everyone should have perhaps 5% of their liquid assets in gold, but at this point anything beyond that level is excessive.â âDennis Gartman, September 29 2010 This guy is such a moron. He has 2 talents - one is that he is able to word things to make it seem like he is right most of the time, the other is his knack for getting himself heard in the financial media. I have no position in gold, but am tempted to buy some solely on this news.
I am always onfused by retributions like yours. _ALL_ markets are opinion. There is no intrinsic value to any of it, only what someone else is willing to pay for it at any given time. Worse, gold has no production value save very niche applications. This is not copper. There are things like Fair Value etc, which is probably what he is basing his opinon on, but then what was the "FV" of 90% of tech in 2001? His opinions are clearly aimed at those that think like him and respect him. Should he say that every time he gives his opinion? "Oh, and for those that have the same colored glasses that I do..." This is somewhat spelled out in this thread, which sort of poses the same quesiton for non-dividend paying stocks: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=180234 I have no idea where gold goes BTW.
People have been calling the top for gold since 400$ an ounce! Why would they want to expose themselves as clueless? Citi went from 50$ to 0,80$.... That's the kind of irrationality that marks the end of large market moves... Not a mere 0,30% upmove here and there... Gold is down 15% in Euro's! Jeez, what an unimaginable bubble... Urgh...
Well, if he is looking for a pullback, he may not get it with the precarious position the Fed is in. Yeah, Gartman is a clown.
Most TV tards are basically random number generators. So I'd guess this prediction has no usable value either way.
I have read Gartman since the mid 90's. Best not to follow any trading advice from him. He is good at summarizing what is happening though. But in this day and age you can find good market summaries almost anywhere.
I saw a speech he gave were he claimed that is accuracy rate on trades was 30%. He is a trend follower who develops rationalizations for whatever direction prices are breaking out in. I guess he sometimes goes contra-trend, likely because he knows "predicting" a trend change (if his call works) gives much free publicity, and if he is wrong it is forgotten.
30-35% win rates are common on long-term futures trend following systems. As for Gartman, of course he's an idiot: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/chart/?q=HAG-T
I'm bullish on gold, but after people keep commenting on how much higher its going, it might be time to sell in the short term and buy it back 20% lower.