Next up: Hungary, Poland, Latvia. Huge huge huge amounts of foreign (CHF, JPY) denominated residential mortgages.
I would be careful on Latvia, been short the rather well managed Lats for 11 months now, unfortunately the Central Bank and other agencies have done their best to protect it . Remember the IMF has also allowed them to use its revolving short term lending facility for currency defense. Desperate governments are harder than arrogant ( Iceland, UK, Italy, Ireland) ones. Best bet is ZAR , Mexican pesos or Malaysia if you enjoy implosion of sovereign entities http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2008/pr08345.htm http://www.bank.lv/eng/main/all/monpolicy/ls-euro/cmp1/
Trading has been going well, grinding away at the spreads, had a very good year thus far hope to keep it up throughout. Profitable as always for you I hope!
I find it easier to short when the individuals affecting the instrument are simply arrogant: Main Entry: ar·ro·gant Function: adjective Etymology: Middle English, from Latin arrogant-, arrogans, present participle of arrogare Date: 14th century 1 : exaggerating or disposed to exaggerate one's own worth or importance often by an overbearing manner <an arrogant official> Remember Dick Fuld at Lehman Brothers, or Stanley O'Neal at Merrill. Or CEOs at the monolines insurers in July 2007, very arrogant !!! With arrogance comes hubris, classic example being current British government ( Look at Sterling), Royal Bank of Scotland, Nine Dragons Paper HKEX:2689 . Flirt with classical Greek material and you will soon see how hubris often destroys..... Whereas desperados are slightly tricky characters as they often are well aware of their situation, therefore very defensive, if not aggressive. I would rather fight a man who thinks he is Zeus than one who knows his weakness.... P.S. I think this is getting too deep and philosophical for ET