I'm so confused. At what point the recession thesis is wrong?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by brickhouse9, Oct 5, 2024.

  1. Sep unemployment was great but it's only one month.
     
  2. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    consider the source and keep drinking the cool-aid.. or wake up.
     
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  3. You might want to be a little less cryptic if you want to engage in a productive discussion.

    P.S. "The trading program's compounded annualized rate of return stands at an impressive 21.7%, outperforming the median of the MAR financial sub index. However, it also exhibits higher volatility, with an annual standard deviation of 54% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.3." < - this sucks. S&P historical Sharpe is 0.68 You suck.
     
  4. Darc

    Darc

    NFPs do whipsaw pretty bad.
     
  5. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    I'm so confused. At what point the recession thesis is wrong?

    lol
     
  6. look, your dweebposting might work great on the droolcrowd here but it doesn't work on me. I'll just keep ripping you a new one.
     
    SunTrader likes this.
  7. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    You need to look at the unemployment numbers beyond the number to determine its merit involving how the FED will view it.
    • Nonfarm payrolls increase by 254,000 in September
    • Unemployment rate falls to 4.1% from 4.2%
    • Average hourly earnings rise 0.4%; up 4.0% year-on-year
    • Average workweek slips to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours
    September-2024-Unemployement-Chart-Comparison.png

    WASHINGTON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - U.S. job gains increased by the most in six months in September and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, pointing to a resilient economy that likely does not need the Federal Reserve to deliver large interest rate cuts for the rest of this year.

    In addition to the bigger-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls reported by the Labor Department on Friday, wages rose at a solid pace last month. The closely watched employment report also showed the economy added 72,000 more jobs in July and August than previously estimated...​

    At the end of the day as a trader...you will welcome the additional volatility that arrives to the markets from surprising Unemployment numbers. The surprise is that the economy is in much better shape than previously estimated, with upgrades to growth, income, savings, and corporate profits.

    These improved economic numbers this week were seen by Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he pushed back against traders' expectations for another half-percentage-point rate cut in November, saying "this is not a (policy-setting) committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly."​

    In addition, several analysts on Bloomberg say they're now expecting a small rate cut instead of a large rate cut by end of year. The FED controls everything regardless if they're doing a good job or not. :D

    Maybe overlooked by many, the surprising September numbers came at a crucial time when the economy was being threatened by a possible Port Worker strike (east and gulf ports) that would have crippled the economy...putting many out of work who depend on consumer goods being transported.

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/04/business/port-strike-ends-whats-next/index.html

    A port strike would have also caused more chaos for the Hurricane Helene relief efforts.

    https://www.foxnews.com/video/6362772513112

    wrbtrader
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2024
    piezoe likes this.
  8. They will cut 0.25 in Nov, that's already clear. but my recession question remains.
     
  9. mervyn

    mervyn

    don’t know where the op is, but we are in a stagflation type of recession. trade small and get out quick.
     
  10. Stagflation? That's obviously wrong (for USA). Look at inflation numbers.
     
    #10     Oct 5, 2024