In 1973, oil prices quadrupled overnight when tensions in the Middle East escalated. Gas stations ran dry, inflation spiked, and the global economy shuddered.
That was then. This is now. We are the number one crude producer. Most countries for a few years now, including the big one China, have had declining and/or slowing overall demand. If the Straits of Hormuz is somehow blocked of course the price of crude will head higher. But how much and for how long is anyone's guess ATM.
Most oil price spikes end in recession. It happened in 1973, 1979, 1990, and 2008. Expensive energy slows economies. Central banks then face a tough call. Geopolitics beats fundamentals short-term. Supply and demand matter, but wars and threats move prices faster. Fundamentals catch up later.
How many people suddenly became instant millionaire/billionaire overnight? Who were those people? Did they have foresight / Inside story? How much money did you earn / lose in 1973? What are the lessons learnt? etc etc
Saudi Arabia’s wealth exploded after 1973. They used oil as leverage. Oil went from $3 to over $12 a barrel. That flood of cash built entire cities.
I think that's where Soros' & his partner made their initial fortune. I think they were heavily long crude futures. I remember Soros' partner (Mr. Bowtie) in their hedge fund used to come on CNBC in the late 1990s all the time warning of a massive bubble in tech stocks.
That was Stanley Druckenmiller. He ran money for Soros. He helped short the British pound and spot the tech bubble early. He always followed the data, not the hype. They didn’t just bet on crude. Soros and Druckenmiller made big moves across currencies, commodities, and rates. Their edge was timing big macro shifts before others saw them.
oil is the easiest commodity to make money, buy low, hold and sell high. it was below 58 not long ago, anyone can buy at that price and hold, any bad news can rally the oil to low and mid 70s be patient
Be patient....this is a trading forum. We're not a young Warren Buffett planning on holding and investing till eternity and managing funds. We're here for the kill