https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2023/07/PE23_270_611.html Inflation rate at +6.4% in June 2023 Inflation increased again slightly, prices up +0.3% month on month Press release No. 270 of 11 July 2023 Consumer price index, June 2023 +6.4% on the same month a year earlier (provisional result confirmed) +0.3% on the previous month (provisional result confirmed) Harmonised index of consumer prices, June 2023 +6.8% on the same month a year earlier (provisional result confirmed) +0.4% on the previous month (provisional result confirmed) WIESBADEN −The inflation rate in Germany, measured as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index (CPI), stood at +6.4% in June 2023. In May 2023, the inflation rate was +6.1%. “The rate of inflation therefore increased slightly again after slowing for three months in a row,” says Ruth Brand, President of the Federal Statistical Office. She adds: “Food remained the biggest driver of inflation. There also is a base effect due to the Federal Government’s relief measures of 2022 – the 9-euro ticket and the fuel discount, – which pushes up the current rate of inflation.“ The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that consumer prices in June 2023 rose by 0.3% on May 2023. Consumer prices indices for Germany Line chart with 3 lines. 2020 = 100 The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Data ranges from 2020-01-01 01:00:00 to 2023-06-01 02:00:00. The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Data ranges from 97 to 157.1. ©Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), 2023Consumer prices indices for Germany2020 = 100CPIEnergyFoodJan '20Jul '20Jan '21Jul '21Jan '22Jul '22Jan '2390100110120130140150160170 End of interactive chart. Prices of energy products up 3.0% year on year Energy product prices in June 2023 were 3.0% higher than in the same month a year earlier, following a 2.6% increase in May 2023. The fact that the increase in energy prices has been below average since March 2023 is mainly due to a base effect from the previous year. There had been large price increases as a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine. The current energy price development is also influenced by other factors, for example the downward trend of prices at upstream stages in the economic process (only in german). Measures of the Federal Government's third relief package such as the brakes on electricity, natural gas and district heating prices also influenced the development of energy prices. From June 2022 to June 2023, price increases were particularly pronounced for solid fuels (+26.6%) and natural gas (+20.8%). Above-average price rises were observed also for electricity (+10.5%) and district heating (+9.3%). By contrast, the prices of mineral oil products fell considerably by 12.8%, especially for heating oil (-36.5%). Motor fuels also cost less than a year earlier (-10.4%) despite the previous year’s fuel discount. Price indices for energy products Line chart with 5 lines. 2020 = 100 The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Data ranges from 2020-01-01 01:00:00 to 2023-06-01 02:00:00. The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Data ranges from 82.1 to 320.4. ©Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), 2023Price indices for energy products2020 = 100FuelsElectricityNatural gas, excl. operating costsHeating oilFirewood, wood pellets or the likeJan '20Jul '20Jan '21Jul '21Jan '22Jul '22Jan '2350100150200250300350 End of interactive chart. Food prices remain biggest driver of inflation: +13.7% from June 2022 Food prices in June 2023 were up 13.7% year on year after a 14.9% increase in May 2023. Food therefore remained the biggest driver of inflation among all product groups. Prices continued to be higher than a year earlier in nearly all food groups. Consumers had to pay markedly more for dairy products (+22.3%) and for sugar, jam, honey and other confectionery (+19.4%). Substantial year-on-year price increases were also recorded for vegetables (+18.8%), fish, fish products and seafood (+18.5%), bread and cereals (+18.3%). By contrast, edible fats and oils cost 12.1% less than a year earlier. Inflation rate excluding energy and food at +5.8% Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate stood at +6.7% in June 2023. When energy and food prices are excluded, the inflation rate was lower (+5.8%), which demonstrates the enormous impact food prices currently have on overall inflation. This rate, which is often referred to as “core inflation”, clearly shows at the same time that inflation is high also in other product groups. In May 2023, the consumer price index excluding energy and food stood at +5.4%, the core inflation rate therefore accelerated again in June 2023. In both April and March 2023, the rate also stood at +5.8%. Goods prices up 7.3% on June 2022 The prices of goods (total) rose by 7.3% in June 2023 on the same month of the previous year. The price increase was particularly pronounced for non-durable consumer goods (+8.8%), which was mostly due to the price rise in the product group of food and non-alcoholic beverages (+13.4%). The prices of durable consumer goods were 5.2% higher compared with June 2022. Service prices up 5.3% year on year The prices of services (total) were up 5.3% in June 2023 on the same month of the previous year.Net rents exclusive of heating expenses had a dampening effect on prices (+2.0%) and therefore continue to play an important role in the below-average increase in service prices. In addition, the introduction of the Germany ticket has had a slight downward effect on price developments since May 2023. However, an upward base effect enters into play from June 2023 due to the availability of the 9-euro ticket in the period from June to August 2022. Therefore, short-distance rail tickets cost much more in June 2023 (+65.2%) than in June 2022 (May 2023: +0.6%) despite the introduction of the Germany ticket. Combined tickets for rail, bus and the like were also markedly more expensive as a result, more than doubling in price (+112.8%) from June 2022 (May 2023: -22.9%). In addition, the prices of several other services increased considerably, for instance maintenance and repair of dwellings (+15.7%), services of social facilities (+11.0%) and restaurant services (+8.4%). Price indices of public transport Line chart with 3 lines. 2020 = 100 1 Combined ticket for rail, bus and the like (network transport) The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Data ranges from 2020-01-01 01:00:00 to 2023-06-01 02:00:00. The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Data ranges from 37.4 to 108.5. ©Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), 2023Deutschland-ticketLimited“9-Euro-Ticket”Price indices of public transport2020 = 1001 Combined ticket for rail, bus and the like (network transport)Kombinierte Personenbeförderung¹Bahnticket, NahverkehrBahnticket, Fernverkehr2020202120222023255075100125 End of interactive chart. Prices up 0.3% on the previous month Compared with May 2023, the consumer price index rose by 0.3% in June 2023. Price increases were recorded in particular for package holidays (+6.1%) and overnight stays (+1.7%). Food prices dropped slightly (-0.2%) compared with the previous month, with a particular decline registered for the prices of fresh vegetables (-3.7%) and dairy products (-1.8%). A similar decrease was observed in the prices of energy (total) (-0.2%). For example, the prices of electricity (-1.1%) and natural gas (-1.0%) were slightly lower than in the previous month. Methodological notes: The “Germany ticket” has been taken into account in the consumer price index since the start of May 2023. It resulted in price reductions in public regional and local passenger transport in May 2023. Compared with the introduction of the “9-euro ticket” for the months from June to August 2022, the impacts were considerably less pronounced. Nonetheless, it did have a slight dampening effect on prices particularly in the services product group. Although the Germany ticket continues to be valid, a year-on-year increase in service prices was observed in June 2023, especially in the prices for public regional and local passenger transport. A major reason for this increase is the introduction of the 9-euro ticket one year ago (base effect), which now has an upward effect on the development of prices. In addition, the current results are impacted by other measures of the Federal Government's third relief package, which are aimed in particular at containing the increase in energy prices. For example, electricity, natural gas and district heating price caps were introduced in 2023, with retrospective effect from January 2023. An overview explaining the different relief measures and their impact on the consumer price index is available on the website of the Federal Statistical Office. The consumer price index (CPI) and the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) differ in coverage and methodology. In contrast to the HICP, the CPI includes also household expenditure on owner-occupied housing, games of chance and broadcasting fees. In addition, the HICP product weights are updated annually. As the weight of housing is much smaller in the HICP basket, price increases in other product groups have a larger impact on the HICP than on the CPI. These differences (coverage, methodology and weighting) explain the differences between the CPI and the HICP for Germany. Explanatory notes and a methodological paper which discusses this issue are provided on the website of the Federal Statistical Office. Inflation Calculator for personal rate of inflation: Consumers can use the Personal Inflation Calculator of the Federal Statistical Office to adapt their monthly consumption expenditure on individual product groups according to their own consumption patterns and to calculate their personal inflation rate. In addition, the Price Kaleidoscope gives an overview of the price trend and the weights of various products. Consumer price index for Germany June 2023 Overall index / subindex Weighting Index 2020=100 Change on the same period a year earlier Change on the preceding month in per mill in per cent 1: Results do not include operating costs. 2: Core inflation ---------------------------- Comment: Long live the bullish bets on EURUSD (it seems for now with that kind of inflation). ------------------------------------------ Hedge Funds Abandon Bullish Dollar Bets on Peak Fed Speculation https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/hedge-f...dollar-bets-on-peak-fed-speculation-1.1943454 , (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds have swung to an overall bearish dollar bet for the first time since March on a wager the Federal Reserve is finally approaching the end of its interest-rate hiking cycle. Leveraged investors flipped to a net short position on the US currency of 20,091 contracts in the week through July 7, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission aggregated by Bloomberg. They were long by a net 5,196 contracts a week earlier. Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar has dropped 1.6% this year on signs the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle and as the rest of the world has caught up in raising rates to combat inflation. US employers added fewer jobs in June than economists forecast, payroll data showed Friday, boosting the confidence of dollar bears betting the central bank will start easing policy sooner rather than later. “With the US nonfarm payrolls behind us, we look to the US CPI report as the next big risk for markets,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd., wrote in a note. “Ahead of this, we’ve seen dollar sellers start to dominate with euro-USD eyeing a retest of the June 22 high of 1.1012, and dollar-yen 300 pips off its recent high.” ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.