Michael Burry of ‘Big Short’ fame says he was ‘wrong’ to tell investors to ‘sell’ Michael Burry says he was “wrong” to tell his followers to sell.PHOTO: UNCREDITED By Joseph Adinolfi March 30, 2023 11:29 am ET Michael Burry, the hedge-fund manager at Scion Asset Management made famous by Michael Lewis’s book “The Big Short,” said in a Thursday tweet that he was “wrong” to tell investors to sell stocks two months ago. Burry issued a one-word tweet on Jan. 31 advising his followers to “sell.” While he didn’t elaborate, MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein noted at the time that it wasn’t hard to fill in the blanks. See: Michael Burry says sell and Jim Cramer says buy. As the Fed meets, here’s how they both could be wrong on stocks. The hedge-fund manager, who correctly anticipated the collapse of the U.S. housing market that triggered the 2008 financial crisis, was advising his followers to sell stocks after a stellar January run-up that saw the Nasdaq Composite COMP rise 10.7%, according to FactSet — its best start to a year in nearly two decades. On Feb. 2, a few days after Burry’s “sell” tweet, the S&P 500 index SPX closed at 4,179.76 after the Fed delivered a 25 basis point interest rate hike. That proved to be the large-cap index’s highest close of 2023, as several weeks of declines followed. The index has fallen roughly 3% since that day, according to FactSet data. But the trend changed once again in March, as U.S. stocks proved surprisingly resilient, shrugging off a transatlantic crisis of confidence in the banking sector, renewed fears of an economic downturn, and expectations that S&P 500 companies suffered their biggest quarterly earnings decline since the second quarter of 2020. The resilience of U.S. stocks appeared even more remarkable when compared with massive daily swings in Treasury yields that briefly caused implied volatility in the bond market to explode to its highest level since 2008. Wall Street analysts expect corporate earnings for S&P 500 firms to have declined 6.1% during the first quarter, which ends on Friday. If this comes to pass, it would be the biggest quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2020, according to FactSet’s John Butters. Burry sent a second tweet on Thursday sardonically calling out contemporary traders for continuing to “buy the dip” in U.S. stocks, following a Bloomberg News report that 2023 is shaping up to be a banner year for the strategy, which gained prominence during the bull run that followed the 2008 financial crisis.
Nobody bats 100%. I was wrong on oil. Then, again I should have taken into account that Joe Biden was releasing hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil from the US strategic oil reserves into the market to flood it and keep prices artificially low. Michael Burry could still be right but, his timing might be off. We are still headed to a recession although, the Federal Reserve pumping more monies in the economy can delay it. That is why you use a stock chart to help you decide when and where to take a position the stockmarket and whether to go long or short it. WTI my trade did not work out and I ended up with a small loss. Now, looking at the stock chart of WTI, it looks ready to breakout. If it does, I intend to go long.
Even a broke clock is right twice a day. He should not extrapolate from his once in a lifetime lucky timing of his original call prior to the GFC. I don't remember that he was once right afterwards.
I'm not sure how Burry picked the GFC crash, but I assume it was through FA of the mortgages. He was right about TSLA, just got the timing wrong. He was also right about this last little Dip, but is now Long by the sounds of it.
Burry was actually right and caught the exact top, on February 2nd. So whoever followed him sold at the top of the year. (so far) From there the SPX dropped almost 400 points, or 10%. Now we did bounce back from the 3800s lows, but that is another tale. The thread's title should be: Michael Burry correctly predicts top, or Burry is wrong about Burry
He predicted the top correctly, but he saw continuation under or around 3k if I remember correctly, after the top was off.