@johnarb You are right I have no clue about mstr nor does anyone I know talk about it. I have no immediate problem with Bitcoin and something like it is surely the future. However I can see from how it trades that it's become a fixture somehow aligned to the western economy and not really independent anymore. It could go up, idk about a million, I guess at that point everything else is inflating making it worth relatively more in US dollars. Maybe the future is a Bitcoin standard but I do think we need something where a value of "1" is worth closer to the price of lunch for people to intuitively use it. Not sure if people are already buying with micro-bitcoin or something, that would be worth 60 cents for instance. Also let me play devil's advocate 1. Investing everything you have no matter what the belief is cult like and will leads to losses 2. Mstr like all other volatile tickers will crash after each 10X or so gain. In fact it already went from 9 to 120 and back again in just a year - 13X level is only something I've seen with cult stocks like Gme. 3. The company owns Bitcoin as a hail Mary investment strategy but maintains a 40X sales which doesn't make any sense. It's an underpants gnome strategy. 4. Getting more Bitcoin using leverage amplifies gains and losses So I have to ask, is this a cult stock? But you've given me an idea, this thing will decay hardcore compared to Bitcoin ETFs eventually and given Bitcoin seems to have pegged the market, I don't think the pairs trade would loose unless Bitcoin moons outta no where. Strategy: short MSTR / long BITO after some research on the appropriate levels. Hold 1-3 years On the counter argument for MSTR 1. Everything you said 2. Plus historical analysis shows clearly that at all time scales, MSTR outperforms BITO on the upside but also takes less damage on the down side. If that pattern holds you could trade the pair a variety of ways. The plots I've attached are 1 week profit and losses. importantly, the graph is taking the performance of the Y axis ticker against the X axis ticker performance ranking for analysis. That means when we see BITO on the X axis, and we look at the extreme percentiles, we are seeing how MSTR behaved when bito is extreme. For that reason you have to look at both sides of this independently. Of note, when BITO is plotted at the top and bottom decile of MSTR's performance, it has close to symmetric pairs performance. 2.4X on the upside and 2.4X on the downside. Rational behavior. Critically though, when we bin MSTR against BITO'S top deciles, we get a different result. 1.6X on the upside and 1.3X on the downside. Said differently, this is correlation not causation BUT the graph hints at the following: When MSTR is driving the moves, it's random and volatile. When BITO is driving the moves, MSTR moves up disproportionately for some reason. This tells me that the buyers of MSTR expect it to outpace the growth of Bitcoin itself (even accounting for the leverage / beta) but somehow retain value when Bitcoin falls. Alternatively you could look at the positive movement as necessary to overcome the higher volatility which risks greater decay over time for MSTR, and thus risk-adjusted they may be more similar than I am seeing. Overall this tells me MSTR has inflated value for no good reason, unless the company has found a way to invent money with no downside, or some sort of path dependency I can't see in the 1 week chart. I'm not confident enough to trade any of this btw, just thinking through. History shows patterns can hold but they can also suddenly break. Maybe there is a correction to be had once high enthusiasm for the stock settles down? I'm not for or against either side - and my graphs can be interpreted in other ways. Looking for feedback
It continues just like any other public company that has business continuity/disaster recovery plans. Saylor has talked about this on youtube video Disclaimer, No financial advice, for entertainment purposes only I would only invest in mstr options or stock itself I did not invest everything into mstr options, only a small portion of my liquid cash, I'm actually risk-averse, though it may be very difficult to believe, I'm constantly doing risk management in my head across our entire net worth, My family has almost no liabilities, except living expenses which have to be met the only thing I'd invest everything into is bitcoin I can recommend a few books for bitcoin education I don't try to convince anyone anymore to invest in bitcoin and definitely not mstr, but I do provide my personal beliefs on why I put money into mstr options and planning to buy the mstr shares in the future bitcoin is not an investment for me, it's my family's life savings account There are already a few hedge funds shorting mstr and buying bitcoin in some ratios, look into Kerrisdale Is mstr a cult stock? I believe that it is Is bitcoin a cult? For me without a doubt bitcoin is the best money in the history of the world, yes I believe that it is a cult as well One thing I can recommend for you to look into wrt mstr is the FASB rule change on bitcoin effective December 15, 2024 (early adoption is possible now...) And if you need more info on mstr from the ultra bull cult leaders, please take a look at the Quant Bros channel on youtube It's very volatile, and has sparked etf's with leverage for more volatility, MSTU, MSTX, MSTY, MSTZ Good luck shorting or going long on mstr
What you are observing is a long-term trend in the financial markets towards memes and cult-like investments which take on a life of their own. Unlike classic bubbles which rapidly grow, quickly burst and stay dead, these things can carry on for years and see repeated pump cycles. For a non-crypto example, just look at GME which is still trading something like 18x its pre-Roaring Kitty value, despite ongoing losses and revenue which has actually contracted. Just a few months ago it pumped from 11 to the 60s. The best thing to do is just roll with it.
I'll say it again and again and again..... If this is such an easy way to create shareholder wealth and to create a stock that's just going to keep on chugging along higher and higher based off the future of where bitcoin is heading then why don't the other thousands of publicly traded companies do the same exact thing. Why isn't Intel or five below or Apple who has hundreds of billions buying up bitcoin to put on their balance sheets and create unlimited upside potential...
The board of directors are a funny bunch of dudes that will not approve it Meta could do it, founder CEO has majority voting rights Dell might do it, Michael keeps tweeting about bitcoin Apple? maybe... they support bitcoin on their Apple Pay recently and Tim Cook has been bitcoin hodler for years now Intel should do it a company that has lost its dominance in the industry IBM should do it MSTR will be the biggest company by market cap before end of the decade 2029
The other day they mentioned that Jensons wealth from nvda is worth more than the entire market cap of intel. Let that sink in for a moment If Intel went ahead and did the same exact thing mstr has done there stock would be at historic highs trading well above the days of the internet bubble!!!
Intel should do it... The problem is that Apple, Intel, IBM, and all these big corporations with board of directors is that they are part of a scam ponzi stock market conflicts of interest They have to use their cash to buy back stock so the big shareholders can dump their stock at higher prices, rinse repeat They are manufacturing EPS growth They have a good system right now, why mess it up?
Bond investors, bond funds love mstr convertible debt not because of the interest rate which is very low 0.6% APR, but because they go up a lot, they are the best