Deutsch: Guten Tag zusammen, ich heiße Paul, bin 20 Jahre alt und beschäftige mich seit einigen Jahren intensiv mit Finanzen und Trading. Aktiv trade ich seit August 2023, zunächst inspiriert durch einen Kollegen, der mich über Networkmarketing an das Thema heranführte. Diese Zeit war hilfreich, um grundlegende Methoden wie Fibonacci-Retracements sowie Support- und Widerstandszonen zu verstehen. Kurz darauf lernte ich die Smart-Money-Concepts (SMC) kennen, die ich ausführlich getestet und analysiert habe. Mittlerweile trade ich mit einer eigenen Swing-Strategie, die auf verschiedenen Faktoren basiert – darunter Marktrends, Premium/Discount-Zonen und Fundamentaldaten. Mein Ansatz kombiniert technische Chartanalyse mit einer klaren, täglichen Makroanalyse, um fundierte Entscheidungen zu treffen. Die Ergebnisse meiner Strategie im Backtesting sprechen für sich: 2022: ca. 46 % Nettogewinn 2023: ca. 38 % Nettogewinn 2024: ca. 55 % Nettogewinn Winrate: ca. 40 % bei einem CRV von 1:3 Breakeven Rate: 18-21 % je nach Jahr Maximaler Drawdown: 8 aufeinanderfolgende Verluste Zeitebenen: 15m, 30m, H1, H4, D1 Im Live-Markt (Q1 2025) bin ich aktuell bei rund 13 % Gewinn. Ich schätze den persönlichen Austausch mit anderen Tradern sehr und halte echte Treffen und Networking für deutlich wertvoller als rein virtuelle Begegnungen. Daher überlege ich derzeit, ob sich vielleicht eine Art exklusiver Trader-Club oder regelmäßige Treffen (z.B. monatlich) im deutschsprachigen Raum etablieren lassen könnten – für entspanntes Networking, Austausch von Erfahrungen und möglicherweise auch branchenübergreifende Synergien. Gibt es unter euch vielleicht bereits bestehende Gruppen oder Erfahrungen mit solchen regelmäßigen Treffen? Ich würde mich sehr über eure Empfehlungen und Meinungen freuen! Beste Grüße aus der Schweiz English: Hello everyone, I'm Paul, 20 years old, and I've been deeply involved in finance and trading for several years. I started actively trading in August 2023, initially inspired by a colleague through network marketing. This early stage provided a good foundation in methods like Fibonacci retracements, support/resistance levels, and other basics. Later, I discovered Smart Money Concepts (SMC), diving deeper into strategies involving Premium/Discount areas and well-known ICT methods. Over time, I've developed my own swing trading strategy that integrates technical analysis with macroeconomic insights. I perform daily fundamental analysis alongside technical setups to make more informed decisions. My backtesting results have been promising: 2022: approx. 46% net profit 2023: about 38% 2024: around 55% Win rate: approx. 40%, Risk-Reward Ratio 1:3 Break-even rate: 18–21% annually Max Drawdown: 8 consecutive losing trades Timeframes: 15m, 30m, H1, H4, D1 Currently, in live trading (Q1 2025), my results stand at approximately 13% profit. I'm also passionate about connecting personally with other traders, as real-life networking often offers far greater value than purely online interactions. I'm particularly interested in creating or joining regular meet-ups or even exclusive clubs or bars for traders in the German-speaking community. Do you have any experience or recommendations about such trader communities? I'd be grateful for your thoughts and would love to connect! Best regards from Switzerland
Don't forget to have a stash of gold as a reserve. Strongest vs. Weakest always. USD/ MXN looks interesting. Tough trade CNH/INR. FXCM or bust, Akuma
Absolutely! Having a reserve stash of gold is always wise—it’s your ultimate hedge, the “strongest vs. weakest” insurance in uncertain markets. Gold’s stability, especially during volatility, is unmatched. USD/MXN indeed looks compelling right now—there’s volatility and clear opportunities. CNH/INR is definitely a tougher play, more nuanced, demanding careful strategy and patience due to complex geopolitical factors and market dynamics. But that’s precisely where disciplined risk management and thorough analysis pay off. And yes, FXCM or bust—solid platforms matter, and reliability is key. Keep making smart moves!
Yeah, that’s pretty much how it always goes. Backtests look great because there’s no emotions, slippage, or unexpected market moves messing things up. In real trading, it’s a whole different game when real money is on the line. You can try to make backtests more realistic, but there’s always going to be a gap between theory and actual results. But we will see what the future will preserve. are you only Trading one Strategie or One Pair etc not quit sure about that i already implented on Eur/usd and gold
I'm not german speaking or a dedicated fx trader though i do trade derivatives on equites and on occasion FX, and happy to share thoughts discuss...currently interested in Eur/GBP from the long side ? thoughts ? Shoujin1974
Fundamental Analysis (My Scoring System) My current macro-scoring for EUR/GBP, based on my own system, indicates a slight strength in the British pound. The interest rate differential remains neutral, as neither the ECB nor the BoE have provided clear signals for further tightening. However, the UK economy appears more resilient than the Eurozone, giving the pound an advantage. While inflation in the Eurozone is declining more rapidly, increasing the likelihood of earlier rate cuts by the ECB, the BoE remains cautious due to persistently high inflation in the UK. Additionally, a more risk-averse market sentiment is driving stronger demand for GBP. The current trend confirms GBP’s strength, suggesting that the pound remains fundamentally favored over the euro in the medium term. From a macroeconomic perspective, monetary policy remains a key factor. Inflationary pressure in the Eurozone is easing, but the ECB has yet to signal clear rate cuts. In contrast, inflation in the UK remains elevated, reducing the likelihood of early BoE rate cuts and supporting the pound. Economic data further reinforces this trend, with the UK showing stability while the Eurozone, particularly Germany, continues to struggle, putting further pressure on the euro. Market sentiment reflects these differences: persistently high UK inflation makes GBP more attractive, whereas faster-declining inflation in the Eurozone increases the probability of ECB rate cuts, weakening the euro. Key upcoming events, including the BoE rate decision on March 21, ECB President Lagarde’s speech on March 14, and the upcoming CPI data from both the UK and the EU, will further shape market movements. Technical Perspective Although I am not actively trading this pair yet, we are currently at an extremely good selling price. The external liquidity and discount zones have already been cleared. Looking at the internal liquidity, the Fibonacci retracement from the Friday, February 28 low to the Tuesday, March 11 high highlights my premium-discount zone. As long as the high remains unbroken, I see short opportunities down to approximately 0.83450 as valid. From a structural perspective, the pair has reached a point where sellers could regain control, aligning with my fundamental outlook. The combination of macroeconomic weakness in the Eurozone and the technical setup suggests that EUR/GBP could continue its downward movement in the near term. Hope this helps. I Wishing you a great day. Best regards, Paul
Great technical overview and is compelling. My thesis was purely around Trumps potential desire to negotiate a Mar a Lago accord to weaken USD against countries with high trade surpluses...not sure if this is a valid analysis or not...but for the deficit to disappear vs. Europe would imply a roughly (all things being equal) 15% reval of EURUSD..whereas GBPUSD actually has a small deficit so no move....thought it was an interesting angle to play over next 3 to 6 months. Comments welcome
Your trading approach sounds impressive, and I completely agree that in-person networking can add great value. There are indeed several trader meetups and clubs in the German-speaking area, especially in cities like Zurich or Munich. I'd recommend checking platforms like Meetup or LinkedIn for local groups, or perhaps even starting one yourself.
trump wants eur to increase against $ so long EU, but what's the thinking behind £? I don't trade mid-term forecasts, but the bank polls median is flatlined for eurgbp (for what that's worth) for long eurusd you're onside: