rally into close play, QCOM, HTZ

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Ferdinand, Nov 15, 2014.

  1. Ferdinand

    Ferdinand

    I didn't bank on either of these, so I'm a chump, but here's a set up I've seen a couple of times recently that I really like. These are fairly big names or at least big volume which allows you to get a fair sized position and be able to get out of it for a very small loss if the move doesn't work.

    What these have in common is they are big names that gapped down and then in the last hour of trade consolidated in a very tight pattern before rallying into the close.

    QCOM I should have had. I was in at 68.51 and for how much I liked this idea was crazy to get out at 68.49. It's good to keep losses small but that is not even giving it a chance. I wanted to be right -- right then.

    (looks stupid on the 10 min chart, wish i had 1 min available but whatever, here is the chart)

    [​IMG]

    Saw very nearly the same thing in HTZ Friday and I'm fairly furious I didn't bank. I certainly tried. I took a few entries but always got shaken out. QCOM was cleaner because right before it rallied it was holding the .50 level strong. I could have bought, put a stop at .45, .48, and waited.

    The setup was this was a fairly big name, high volume stock, that gapped down, consolidated at a clear price the last hour, then rallied.

    But HTZ was much harder. The level was was 20.50. But it went down and printed 20.45, then up to 20.60, then printed .52, THEN went.

    [​IMG]

    This one was less clean but the principle is clearer on the 1 min chart. I'm a very short term trader and I hate "taking heat." Everyone is a genius in hindsight and yes, with a stop below 20.45 this would have worked gangbusters. When I have faith in an idea, I should give it a little wider stop.

    When will we see this set up again? I have a feeling it will be awhile but if we do, I'll certainly be happy to take a bit more risk on it, because it's a pattern I've noted recently and the upside is certainly there.

    This is the internet and I expect nonsense and derision in response. I work at a prop firm, I was taking a crack at this with 1000 shares. I understand these things didn't rally for days and points. I understand my stop was too tight. The basic concept is this is a clear set up, clear level, clear risk with 4-5 times the potential reward, and that's what I look for.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2014
  2. fika

    fika

    What prop shop do you work for?
     
  3. Ferdinand

    Ferdinand

    Tower Hill Trading in Chicago. I've commented in more detail on my experience starting there in another thread. You don't get a salary and they're not going to tell you how to definitely make money. They will almost certainly hire you and you have to work really hard to make any progress.
     
  4. fika

    fika

    They sound awful, why stick with them?
     
  5. Ferdinand

    Ferdinand

    Funny that a guy who is clearly above considering gracing my firm with his presence spends his time on forums derailing threads about trading ideas. I would think with your wealth and trading acumen you would have better things to do.
     
  6. fika

    fika

    Not trying to troll. Seriously analyze your situation. The firm you are with has no edge. They are merely teaching elementary technical analysis and hoping for the best.

    "You don't get a salary and they're not going to tell you how to definitely make money. They will almost certainly hire you and you have to work really hard to make any progress." <---This whole sentence is scary.

    Real prop firms do not operate like this. They have sophisticated strategies many of which take the form of statArb, pay great salaries/benefits, and train their employees to think creatively and out of the box. I hope you realize this and move on with your life, no one should have to go through the kind of stress.

    In terms of your strat, here it is in a nutshell:
    It crossed the line, its a breakout! Oh man it fell below-fake out! Yikes its back above the line-mega breakout! oh no false alarm again. I swear it works 50% of the time...
     
  7. Ferdinand

    Ferdinand

    I have a lot to disagree with here and I'm not sure where to begin.

    1) Mainly you have hijacked my thread about a specific trade review into an argument about whether or not my firm is good and whether or not I should work there, which I don't really appreciate. If you have something to say about the trade review specifically, that would be great.

    2) You claim to have summarized my strategy, which is amazing, because I did not outline "my strategy." I outlined, ONE trade set up. Again, you have not really addressed why this set up is good or bad or added anything at all to the point of the thread.

    3) I hear a lot on this forum that there are all these magical great firms backing me and paying me and training me and I should go work at them. Well, I have applied and interviewed at a few places and, surprise, I work at the one that hired me. Not the ones that didn't hire me. So unless you actually have a better place that will really hire me, specifically, now, I am not that interested in the general theoretical concept that my firm is terrible and I shouldn't be working there because I could work somewhere better.

    Those were really exciting set ups that really made sense to me. I attribute my lack of ability to cash in on them to the fact that I was too big and wasn't giving it realistic wiggle room, in this case meaning more than .03 c, which was just not realistic. My flaw was basing my stop on my fear, due to a much larger than average position. I should have taken the risk, as these set ups really made sense to me and would have worked out if I gave them half a chance.

    Another reason I think they are so great is the fact that you do NOT see them every day. Really good set ups are not common. Really good specific set ups are even less common. I have not seen this kind of opportunity present itself this well since I posted this. But I think I will. Again, this is not the only thing I trade, and I get by in the meantime. I posted this because I think it is a FAR ABOVE AVERAGE set up. And when I see it again, be it 3 months, 6 months, or a year from now, I will be willing to risk much more on it.

    I posted this in the trade journal section for a reason. If all you have by means of reply is to tell me my firm is bad I would appreciate you hold your comments, and if you don't, I will try hard not to respond to them.

    If you have a relevant comment to the set ups mentioned, I would love to hear them.
     
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2014