What's the generally accepted stat - the Market trends only 25% of the time. Any of the Stat Whizkids here done the maths for what that percentage of time the SPX has been trending has been recently compared to historical. Gotta be alot more since Trump started causing all this Volatility. (No BrownMark, this isn't another Trump thread, so don't go crying).
Trending days are not that rare, happens quite often. Every day is technically a trending day....you just have to anticipate that movement turn expectation moment. Sure, Every trader wishes the market would move up or down steadily over time ..so it is very easy to trade and read. Stop trying to predict the exact future, predict the exact tomorrow. But rather simply observe it in real time, analyze it, react to it and trade it accordingly Trader S
It's easier with we could agree that trending day is starting the day closer to one extreme and ending the day closer to the other extreme not bouncing in wide fluctuations.
There are various types of trends : 1. uptrend 2. downtrend 3. big range with uptrend and downtrend and up and down and ... 4. small range 5. indetermined trend / trendless / chaotic trend <<<<<< this is very 'popular' 6. various combinations and permutations of the above #5 is very popular. That's why < 10% traders earn $$$$$$$$$$$$$$.
Every goofy genius amateur trader is guilty of 1,2. #3 takes skill and timing. #4, a wise trader would stand down, not force anything #5,6 is expert level of trading Of course, all of this is only evident in Hindsight. An intelligent, wise, experienced trader would generally know this ahead of time through analysis of the framework landscape image map. Consideration of elements and variables Good luck at your Exchange Market Casino,,.,..
How much do you give me to run, a simple 5 rows, analysis on Google sheet ? Compute a) the absolute change (close-close[1]) Compute b) the ATR(1) Compute c) the ratio of a) over b) Compute d) the rolling 21D average Compute e) the percentile rank or whatever That being said ... Mean Reversion !
My entries are 98% against the trend whether trading 2 tick charts or monthly. I can program what is trend for a system but I don't do breakout entries of highs or lows, RISK is way too much. So when price is falling am a buying or rising am a seller but must be making patterns of reversals. Trend for me is 2 closes in a row beyond standard Bollingers.
The stat that markets trend only ~25% of the time is generally accurate, especially if you’re defining a “trend” as a directional move with minimal retracement across the session. Most days are range-bound or rotational. If you’re looking for next-day trend probability tools, you’re not going to find many reliable public sources—smart money doesn’t give that away. That said, a few things you can do: Watch implied volatility and overnight ranges – Tight overnight ranges + low IV often lead to expansion days (potential trends). Goldbach timing – Certain algorithmic time windows (like Goldbach sequences) tend to align with institutional entry zones. Market profile anomalies – Look for poor structure or single prints from the prior day that might get revisited. Liquidity maps – Tools like Bookmap or even just DOM data can reveal hidden bias based on iceberg orders and spoofing. Lastly, true trend days often coincide with macro catalysts or unexpected data. If you’re serious about forecasting them, combine a news calendar with algo timing models. I’ve built a strategy around it and it’s been consistently accurate